23 November 2007

Salute the Presidente

The million dollar Railway Stakes on Saturday will be won by sensational galloper El Presidente. With 8 wins from 10 starts in his short career, this is his acid test but the 4 year old by Dante’s Fury has better things waiting for him in Melbourne next spring and will win the Group 1 feature race at Ascot.

I don’t see any real dangers to the favourite but West River Charley is at ridiculous odds and will certainly give a bold sight. He has good form through many of these and is drawn to get an excellent run. At around $4.20 the place at fixed odds, he is super value and certainly one to throw into exotics.

Glory Hunter is drawn the pole and ran second to El Presidente last week. He is a risk at the mile in my opinion but must be conceded a place chance. He is trained by master WA conditioner Lindsay Smith, who very rarely places his horses in races that they won’t be competitive in. On that factor alone, he must be included in multiples.

New Spice and Mansion House also have claims for the minor money her but both are drawn the car park and will need luck in running. Idyllic Prince is another with a place chance, but he too is drawn very wide in barrier 16. Beat The Storm can improve on his ordinary run when well supported behind El Presidente last week. Any runner with genius WA hoop Paul Harvey on board is entitled to consideration.

8 from 12, 1, 10, 11, 2

Race 1 – Valentine Miss was impressive last week. She is drawn to win again. Rich And Wild comes through the same race. Dash Of Brains will have derived benefit from it’s debut performance. 

1 from 2, 3

Race 2– Ol Aussie is down in class and will be at a very backable price. Kanturk is well in after the apprentice claim for young Kennedy. Gloting and Broadway hit are both a chance in a tough race.

6 from 1, 7, 2

Race 3– Another tricky affair. Vain Crusader is down significantly in class and has Harvey on board. Reflective Star was beaten as odds on favourite last time but can make amends here. Fim Maru is in good form and gets 3kg weight relief here. Collegian and Solidwickedcruel are also in this up to their ears.

4 from 8, 3, 2, 6

Race 4– Alpine Lad looks very hard to beat here. He has good form in better races than this and whilst he has to carry 58 ½ kg , his class should get him home. Mr President is going well and can figure. Star Risca is also a chance and Midtime can improve sharply back in this company.

2 form 11, 6, 10

Race 5– This is one tough race. Any one of the top six can win and to be honest it is hard to separate them. Kim Currency just on top from Jolanta Star. However, if there is any money for Anecdotal, follow it. Paul Harvey doesn’t ride hacks and this one is here after winning at Northam where it belted them on debut as a $1.50 favourite.

1 from 2, 5, 4, 3, 6

Race 6– Black Douglas meets Cat In A Hat 4 kg better for being beaten 1 ½ lengths last start. On weights, it looks a special. Ronnie likes the track and can bob up into a place at big odds. 

1 form 6, 11

Race 7 – This is a big drop in class for Exotic Nights but I don’t think that she represents any value. Pure Black has a great record at the trip and is in very good form. She can upset the favourite here. Tip The Angel has the services of Damien Oliver and is a chance as is Our Katarina who likes this track and has a sound record at the distance.

5 from 4, 3, 9

Race 9– Lachina should win again. He is a flying machine. Chachi has Harvey engaged and is the danger. Kim Luck, Just Les and Bluff Point all have some hope.

1 from 8, 13, 10, 12

In the EPL, my tip of the week is the DRAW between Aston Villa ad Middlesborough at around $3.20. This week’s banker is Everton at $1.50 to beat Sunderland. Sure it looks skinny but think of it as adding a 50% premium to your fixed odds betting for the weekend.

Good luck and don’t forget to pop into a voting booth on your way to the TAB on Saturday.

15 November 2007

Zipping Benefit Busted by The Fuzz

After yet another momentous carnival for The Speculator, racing this week moves to Sandown with a couple to very nice races to keep us in the green. With warm weather predicted, a bumper crowd looms for what is Sandown’s major race meeting for the year with a lot of carnival hoses having their last crack at some decent prize money before they go for a well earned spell.

The feature race is The Sandown classic and it whilst on face value this looks to be a benefit for Zipping, I have found a couple of runners that are more than capable of spoiling the party. Extend is a stayer on the rise and did win at Headquarters last weekend. Baughurst ran an honest race in the same event and meets Extend 3kg better at the weights here for being beaten 1 ½ lengths. At 20/1 he is juicy each way odds.

The Fuzz was scratched from the Melbourne Cup and gets his chance to win another good race here. His run in the SAAB was good and master trainer David Hayes will have him cherry-ripe to repeat his Geelong Cup win over the same trip 3 weeks ago. Sentire is another one with a hope at good value. He was scratched last week with this race in mind and will run the trip out strongly. He has also won at the track which is in his favour.

Zipping is the class horse but I am not convinced that he is a genuine stayer. Whilst he did finish 4th again in the Cup, it looked to me as though his run peaked at the 200m mark. He can win but I still believe that he is suspect at the end of his races over longer trips and Sandown’s long, uphill straight will not suit him. He is the best horse in the race but the fixed odds of $2.30 are no value whatsoever.

I will be having something on The Fuzz and something each way on Baughurst. Red Lord is a sneaky place hope on the back of his last start win.

The Fuzz from 7, 5, 1, 10

The other feature race on the card is the Sandown Guineas over 1600m. The favourite will be Belcentra from the Freedman yard and will con a lot of people with her 5 ½ length win at Flemington on Cup day. Again, I’m not saying that she can’t win but as you all know, The Speculator is a “speculator” and I specialise in value. Belcentra, like Zipping is no value. In fact, she is a rip-off at her current quote and will likely start shorter on Saturday when all the suckers rock up to their local Pub Tab with their rent money and plonk it on her.

El Mandon is the value after being slaughtered by Craig Newitt last week in what looked to me to be one of the worst rides of the carnival. After jumping well, Newitt had this fellow sitting three deep without cover midfield. As far as I am concerned, these blokes are paid top dollar to give their horse the best available opportunity and on this occasion, Newitt was lacking in both judgement and flexibility. Despite this, El Mandon boxed on like a good horse, just going under in a tight finish. He looks as though the step up to the mile is perfect and with a decent ride can win.

Of the others I like Schilling and Motonari, both of who are very honest and are up to winning a race like this. Masked Assassin was not disgraced behind Weekend Hussler last start and is also suited by the step up in distance. He has a chance too.

El Mandon from 4, 16, 8, 1

There is no action in the EPL this weekend, with European Cup Qualifiers taking centre stage. Not to be deterred, I have found a couple of value investments to keep us all interested. Scotland are at home to Italy and always play with grit and passion in front of their adoring home fans. They can certainly steal a point against the boring Italians who in my opinion are the most overrated and uninspiring side in world football. Take the draw at $3.20 into Norway at home to beat Turkey at around $2.15.

The banker this week is Australia at $1.40 to win the second test against Sri Lanka. With no significant rain forecast, I cannot see the Lankans holding on for five days after the beating that they copped in Brisbane. Remember, the more you put on, the more you win.

The Speculators best:

Sandown Race 6 Number 4, The Fuzz. ($7.50 fixed odds) Sandown Race 7 Number 5, El Mandon. ($5.50 fixed odds) ECQ Scotland/Italy DRAW into ECQ Norway WIN into 2nd test Australia WIN ($10.08 fixed odds)

See you next week.

5 November 2007

Ollie drinking Bolly as Purple Moons Melbourne

In what is shaping as a very open Melbourne Cup, The Speculator has selected UK raider Purple Moon as the horse to beat in Tuesday’s $5 million dollar event.

Coming off a luckless sixth in the Caulfield Cup at his first Australian run, Purple Moon is cherry ripe to run a super race on Tuesday. Trainer Luca Cumani has dumped Kerrin McEvoy after what was a poor ride at Caulfield and engaged master tactician and big race superstar Damien Oliver for the cup.

Purple Moon has all the credentials to win on Tuesday and is further aided by the fact that this is a very weak Melbourne Cup. He has winning form in good staying races in the UK, has not been over-raced, is carrying the luxury weight of 53.5 kg and is coming into this race in good form. With further rain forecast between now and Tuesday, Purple Moon may actually be advantaged by drawing a little wide in gate 15.

If the anticipated rain does arrive the inside might not be the place to be later in the day. Provided Purple Moon can get some cover, it should not matter if Oliver has to sit three wide on him for the trip as he will be racing on firmer ground.

Purple Moon is not over the line yet however and there are a number of others with a good chance. Caulfield Cup winner Master O’Reilly will start favourite. He won easily at Caulfield, has been in superb form throughout the spring, is drawn in my opinion to get a nice run off the fence and is strong at the end of his races. Like Purple Moon, if he can get cover, he is in this race up to his ears. Importantly too, he is a horse that can handle all track conditions.  

I also have a healthy respect for Zipping and his McKinnon run was a cracker. He has drawn wide but will go back anyway and has never been out of a place on soft ground. He ran an eye-catching 4^th in this race last year and is going just as well this preparation. Jockey Danny Nikolic is one of the very best in the business so be looking for this fellow to be getting home late.

After his slashing win in the McKinnon on Saturday, Sirmione is now right in the mix. Trained by genius Bart Cummings, Sirmione is aiming to give Bart an unprecedented 12^th Melbourne Cup win. This horse doesn’t win out of turn but Cummings has a habit of having his horses peak on cup day. Sirmione is certainly in the mix.

The Fuzz is a good chance at odds. After winning the Geelong Cup, this fellow just came up short in The SAAB on Saturday. I have some doubt as to whether he is a genuine two-miler but I do know that he is rock hard fit and trained by Australia’s number one trainer David Hayes. Hayes doesn’t put them in big races if the can’t win and on account of that, The Fuzz is a definite knockout chance. He has world class hoop Craig Williams on board and is unbeaten on slow and heavy ground. If The Fuzz can stay the trip, he can certainly win with the right run.

The query and the key to this race might just be Efficient. His best form wins this but this fellow, whilst showing glimpses of it during the spring, has not yet hit top gear. He went over the fences during the week after a terrible run in the Cox Plate and has worked sensationally since. What to make of that I don’t know but what I do know is that you cannot leave last year’s VRC Derby winner out of your calculations.

Outside of those six, I have a healthy respect for mares Princess Coup and Eskimo Queen, both of which are in good form and are right in the mix. Tungsten Strike has both the tactical speed and stamina to be dangerous as well. He is a natural front runner and has the talent to lead this for a long way. Gallic is a genuine two-miler and will give a bold showing also.

12 from 11, 9, 20, 21, 6. Next best are 23, 22, 8, 4

Race 1 – Hips Don’t Lie killed them in Adelaide and is not here for a holiday. Segolene was sound after leading on debut and should run well. Freedman pair, Cinnamon Bells and Viennese should be kept safe.

1 from 2, 7, 12

Race 2 – Tremezzo is being stepped up in distance quickly second up but is a good mare and can win. Keepthedreamalive must be respected whilst Collodi is down in class. Just Curios beat a reasonable field at Geelong last time.

5 from 16, 7, 6

Race 3– Completion is a promising stayer and will be suited by Flemington. This looks his race. Vicello won easily in Adelaide last start and is a good stayer. Red Lord can improve sharply and Bay Story would be a chance if he could recapture his a form where he was runner up in the Perth Cup.

7 from 11, 4, 1

Race 4 – Juste Momente is the one to beat here if the track is soft. Laura’s Charm is a good mare. Sensational Toy has very solid claims as do Bonelle and Pinsemtoit.

4 from 1, 13, 14, 9

Race 5 – The Douglas stable is firing and Volcada looks the one here. She was not beaten far by good sprinter Royal Asscher last time and this is easier. Regalio is up sharply in class but sat three wide without cover on debut to score comfortably in the country. Simplest was battered from pillar to post in the race won by Listen Here at Caulfield. Both are chances again. Allervite is not without claims. Also, there should be a big watch on Swirly Dream. Williams is on board and any betting moves should be monitored carefully as he has chosen to ride this filly instead of Hayes other runner Listen Here.

10 form 7, 2, 8, 1

Race 6 – I’m sticking with the Kavanagh stable here and selecting Danedina. She is down 5kg on here gallant second placing last start and can go one better.

4 from 7, 6, 3, 2

Race 8 – I like Moreton Bay in what is shaping as a good day for trainer Rodney Douglas. Moreton Bay looks a quality racehorse and with the pull in the weights can beat the good galloper Molotov.

13 from 1, 5, 4, 10

Race 9 – Tough to pick between Rubiton Raider and Sanjuan in this. Both are in brilliant form and will probably quinella this race. I’m opting (just) for Rubiton Raider at the value. Sanjuan will likely start favourite but with little separating these two sprinters, Rubiton Raider is the value selection. Apple Lode will run an honest race and has won up the straight. Snort has never been unplaced first up. Cocinero’s best would be very competitive too.

7 from 13, 4, 10, 1

Race 10 – An open race to finish the program but I do think that Magic Jet can get up at good odds here. He is first up after going amiss last preparation and if he is forward enough can win. El Pauji has been competitive in some good races and has claims as do Tears I Cry and Escadaire.

5 from 9, 1, 7

2 November 2007

THE SPECULATOR STRIKES AGAIN….AND AGAIN

I’m grinning from ear to ear as I greet my loyal followers on the eve of what promises to be yet another wonderful Derby Day at Headquarters. Hopefully all of you are now cashed up for the carnival on the back of El Segundo’s win in the Cox Plate as tipped by The Speculator in last week’s edition. Those of you that look at the late mail on The Mailman’s forum will have even fatter wallets after taking my advice at Warracknabeal on Monday.

So the question is where are the winners on Derby Day? Fear not, my ever growing legion of converts for I have more candy in store for Saturday in the shape of some nice each way value bets that can be backed with confidence.

Race 1

Exceedingly Good was impressive up the straight on debut and will probably win again. Nato wasn’t disgraced in the same race and will give a sight at odds with the watch being on the David Hayes filly Ballerina Girl. The stable have a high opinion of her and my suggestion would be to watch the money. If the money comes for Ballerina Girl then get on. If not, then stick with Exceedingly Good.

1 from 2 & 10

Race 2

Schilling on face value looks the one. However, its form may not be what it seems. Three starts back it fell in against General Eisenhower who it meets again here. General Eisenhower has been ordinary since however and has forced me to look elsewhere. I have settled on Pit Lane who was not disgraced in the Caulfield Guineas when beaten 6 ½ lengths by superstar Weekend Hussler. Pit Lane’s form prior to that had been very good and he looks to be great value here. Look for Motonari and Electomotive to run well. They have similar from around Pit Lane. Wilsons Promontory made good late ground behind the very good sprinter Royal Asscher last week and can fill a place at big odds. I suggest backing Pit Lane each way. For you exotic players, include numbers 8, 10 and 11.

2 from 8, 10 & 11 

Race 3

A number of these need to win in order to qualify for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. It won’t matter though because The Fuzz will win again and go into The Cup as one of the form runners. He won the Geelong Cup last week and meets several of those runners again here. He is suited to Flemington and the 100 metres will play into his hands. He has been set for the Melbourne Cup and is a very dour stayer. From barrier one he will get a nice smother and provided Craig Williams can navigate his way into the clear at the right time, The Fuzz will outstay his rivals here. The logical danger is Zavite whom The Fuzz beat at Geelong. Zavite meets The Fuzz 1kg better at the weights for being beaten ¾ of a length last week. Lee Freedman has been talking up King Of Ashford this week. Forget about him, he cannot win. He was okay in The Coongy but his form before that was disgraceful, he has never been placed at Flemington and is untried at the trip. Cefalu will run well. He gets weight relief on his Geelong Cup run, which was sound. Pacino is the other chance. In summary, back The Fuzz straight out and make sure that Cefalu is in your exotics.

5 from 6, 8 & 11

Race 4

I just don’t like this race at all. The 3 year old fillies are such an even bunch that it is very difficult to narrow this race down to a logical bet. My advice is to stay out but if you must have an investment Zarita at around the $8 mark has a real chance here. She is drawn well and her run behind Serious Speed in the 1000 Guineas was good enough. Serious Speed is the top weight and likely favourite. This filly won the 1000 Guineas with relative ease but I am not convinced that she can concede 4kg to Zarita and beat her home again. Back Zarita each way otherwise stay out of this one.

6 from 1, 4 

Race 5

Weekend Hussler wins and wins well. Don’t even bother trying to find something to beat this up and coming superstar. Royal Asscher will run second. Save your money here. Weekend Hussler will be at an unbackable price, just enjoy the race.

1 from 7 then 6 & 9 

Race 6

The McKinnon Stakes. Last week’s hero El Segundo is out. That doesn’t matter as he doesn’t like Flemington and wouldn’t have won anyway. Miss Finland has to run very well here and probably win to justify a Melbourne Cup start. Craig Williams has stated publicly that he is going to ride her cold in a bid to recapture that finishing ping that we have been used to for the past 12 months. If she is anywhere near her best she wins. I don’t think she is though and that is why I am steering you towards Devil Moon. Her Cox Plate run was good, boy genius Michael Rodd is back on board and she loves Flemington. She will do me. Haradasun will run into a placing (again!) with Miss Finland and Duoro Valley thereabouts. Princess Coup is not suited at WFA but will run an honest race. Pillar Of Hercules will be under the odds and is tested in this company. Number 14 (Devil Moon) from 10, 6, 12 and 13.

14 from 10 then 6 & 12 

Race 7

The Victoria Derby is a very open race. There are at least four chances with Villain, Marching, Kibbutz and Littorio the standouts. Marching was impressive last week in the AAMI Vase and will take no end of catching. Kibbutz ran on stylishly in the same race but may have been flattered by the early speed that was on. He is an awkward customer though and just looks as though he will be suited by Flemington’s wide expanses. David Hayes would not have sent him over from Adelaide without good reason and he is unquestionably a horse on the up.

Villain too has strong claims. He has won at Flemington and looks to be an improving stayer. He just went under to Pillar Of Hercules at Caulfield last start and that horse’s performance in the McKinnon Stakes will be a pointer to Villain’s chances here. However, I am very confident that Littorio will win the Derby. If ever there was a horse tailor made for Flemington it is the big striding Littorio. Coming through the same Caulfield race as Villain, Littorio will be suited down to the ground by Flemington and can turn the tables on Villain here. At the $7 quote, he is over the odds and my on top selection.

11 from 1, 3 & 4 

Race 8

Divine Madonna is the obvious selection here. She will be around yours for theirs but loves Flemington, has a great record at the distance and is thrown in at level weights. She has been racing in better company than she meets here and with Michael Rodd piloting her, will win. Autumn Jeuney can fill a place as can Cinque Cento who is better suited back to the mile.

1 from 2, 5 & 11 

Race 9

The Salinger is perhaps the most open race of the day. Any one of ten horses can win this and I am not going to go into this race in any real detail. I will be having a small investment on Undue each way. He was buried away on the inside of runners at Caulfield a fortnight ago and can be forgiven that run. He will appreciate Flemington and has a winning chance at each way odds. If the track is favouring on pace runners it might also be wise to have a few dollars on Here De Angels.

1 from 3, 5 & 6 

Race 10

Valedictum is in good form and can win. Michael O’Leary has sent Royal Ida over from Adelaide so he must be confident after that horse’s effortless win two weeks ago at Morphetville. Lord Of The Dance and Roman Squire are obvious chances also.

2 from 1, 3 5 & 6

The Speculator’s Best

Race 2 Number 2 Pit Lane

Race 3 Number 5 The Fuzz

Race 7 Number 11 Littorio

Race 8 Number 1 Divine Madonna

27 October 2007

Spectacular Speculator

The advice : Anchor El Segundo

The result : More Multi Magic

The prince of punting, the monarch of multi betting has lead his people to yet another victory over his natural enemy - the bookie.

"Vincent van Gogh once told me "Great things are not done by impulse, but by a series of small things brought together". Clearly, he was talking about multi betting. I have these words on a plaque on the roof above my bed. It is the first thing I read when I wake up in the morning", the Speculator said this afternoon.

"I love my people, I want them to be wealthy" he added as he downed his 13th Crownie.

26 October 2007

Anchor El Segundo in

Magnificent Moonee Multi

For those of you following The Speculator’s tips, injury time in the Everton versus Liverpool clash last weekend was quite surreal. With the draw all but stitched up at the juicy price of $3.30, Everton firstly conceded a penalty and subsequent goal to Liverpool before having a penalty appeal of their own denied by referee Stevie Wonder and his linesman Ray Charles.

The Rugby World Cup temporarily came to Goodison Park but Everton, like England in the World Cup Final the same night were shafted by the officials.

Anyway, as I always say “yesterday’s history, tomorrow’s a mystery” and there is no bigger mystery than the Cox Plate with any number of horses in with a legitimate winning chance.

I have settled on Moonee Valley specialist El Segundo. Haradasun is the danger with any number of chances including Miss Finland, Efficient, Devil Moon and Marasco for third.  Trainer Colin Little has kept El Segundo fresh for this race and he is out to atone for last year when he was beaten an eyelash by grand galloper Fields Of Omaha.

There is no FOO this year and with Miss Finland racing more like a Melbourne Cup Horse and Marasco out of sorts, it will be up to Haradasun and Efficient to spoil the party. Devil Moon is a chance and the likely leader but there is a question mark over this horse in this company. I expect them to crawl early before the inevitable pressure goes on at the 800 metre mark and with a query over Devil Moon in this company, I expect El Segundo to be getting out of the pack to give chase. Efficient is the query.

The 2006 Victoria Derby winner has been racing well but I just feel that he is better at Flemington where he can be given plenty of time to wind up.  The same goes for Marasco but he is not racing as well as he was earlier this preparation. Haradasun has had one start at The Valley for a second, beaten by El Segundo over the mile in September. He is a definite chance. For those of you that are looking for a long shot to stick into your multis, look for Niconero to run his usual honest race. At around $10 the place, he’s the best outsider,

My other tips for tomorrow are Royal Asscher and Gold Edition. Royal Asscher is currently at $2.25 with fixed odds. This horse was very gallant when second behind Gold Edition at Caulfield a fortnight ago and will win.  Gold Edition is the value at $2.30 to beat superstar Miss Andretti ($1.70) in the Schweppes Stakes. Race fitness will be a huge advantage for Gold Edition and she is flying at the moment. Miss Andretti is a champion but diving in to take skinny odds on any horse first up from an overseas campaign is dangerous.

In the EPL, look for Spurs ($2.10) to bounce back after their loss to Newcastle and beat Blackburn at home. Robbie Keane is in rich goal scoring form at the moment and could be the destroyer. Liverpool at home to Arsenal is an even money bet. The draw at $3.25 looks the safe option here.

The Speculator’s investments for this week:

El Segundo WIN $6.00

Royal Asscher WIN into Gold Edition WIN $5.15

El Segundo WIN into Royal Asscher WIN into Gold Edition WIN $30.90

Tottenham WIN into Liverpool/Arsenal DRAW $6.83

19/10/07

Handicapper hands Caulfield Cup to Magnificent Maldivian

Mark Kavanagh looks set to continue his sensational Spring when racing's new pin up horse Maldivian wins Saturday's Caulfield Cup. To say that this horse is thrown in at the weights with 53kg is indeed an understatement when you consider that he is coming off a weight for age win over Miss Finland at the same track just last week.

Maldivian ticks virtually all the boxes that justify his short quote of $2.40.  In five starts at Caulfield, Maldivian has clocked up two wins and has been in the placings at his other three starts. He is in ripping form at the moment with authoritive wins at his last two starts.

Michael Rodd who is one of Australia's elite young jockeys will pilot and most importantly the horse will jump from barrier one. Provided he jumps cleanly, Maldivian has the tactical speed to position himself handily in the run. Depending on the tempo of the race, with his light weight Rodd may even roll to the front and force less credentialled runners with similar weights to chase him down.

The only slight asterix next to Maldivian is the fact that he is yet to race beyond a mile and a quarter. However, being by Zabeel the extra distance really should be a blessing for this budding superstar. I am happy enough to take the short quote here but for those of you seeking some value take Maldivian in some doubles around El Segundo and Haradasun in the WS Cox Plate.

At all costs, steer clear of Miss Finland at her current quote of $3.50 as this represents no value whatsoever. For those that like the exotics, you could do a lot worse than Cinque Cento for your trifectas and first fours. If you overlook this mare’s last run where there are some question marks over the Flemington track, her form around the likes of Haradasun and Miss Finland is very good. She is drawn to get a nice run and has big race rider Scott Seamer in the saddle. At $12.50 the place with fixed odds she represents outstanding value.

Duoro Valley, with a win over Maldivian two starts back at the track also adds some interest and his run in the Turnbull was sound.

With the AFL done and dusted for season 2008, it is a fairly lean weekend in the sports arena. The Speculator has however found a couple of nice little investments that will keep you glued to your television screens over the next couple of days.

In one of the games of the round in the English Premier League, Tim Cahill's Everton are at home to Harry Kewell's Liverpool. Liverpool struggled at home recently to a struggling Spurs outfit and were lucky to scrape a point with virtually the last kick of the afternoon.

Everton are just ticking over too but I do fancy them to share the points and $3.30 looks a good value proposition. Bet them into a double with Fulham ($1.70) at home to beat Derby. Derby are awful and there is no case that can be mounted for them to claim a share of this weekend's spoils. Fulham will win and are my anchor bet this weekend.

The other sporting event of interest this weekend is the Rugby World Cup FInal. It looms as an interesting encounter. England have done their best to bore everybody to death with some of the most uninspiring rugby ever seen at a World Cup whilst the Springboks have been the exact opposite, playing an attacking game full of enterprise and flair.

Given a dry track South Africa will win and with the flying Bryan Habana at the peak of his powers, I expect that they will win well. Take them giving 8 1/2 points start at the line ($1.90)

This weeks' investments:

Maldivian (Caulfield Cup) win into Fulham (Fulham/Derby) $4.08

Maldivian (Caulfield Cup) into El Segundo (WS Cox Plate) $15.60

Draw (Everton/Liverpool) into Fulham (Fulham/Derby) into South Africa -8 1/2 (Rugby World Cup Final) $10.65

Cinque Cento (Caulfield Cup) place $12.50

This weeks' knock:

Miss Finland. Can still win the WS Cox Plate but is no value at $3.50

The Speculator