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19 September 2008 The Speculator - AFL Football
Hawks to Send Saints to Hell
My friends, The Speculator has returned. It seems that life’s excesses have claimed another one. I have been ill you see, dining out on the fruits of my many victories. Too much Moet and caviar have laid me low this past month but I am back bigger and meaner than ever.
And hasn’t The Speculator chosen a week to make his triumphant return. Preliminary Final week, the week that sorts out the contenders form the pretenders, the men from the boys, the chiefs from the ....you get the picture.
Unfortunately I have to say though that these two finals are not exactly what you would call awe inspiring. Geelong and Hawthorn are the clear cut favourites and deserve to be. They have been the two standout sides all year and it would be a tragedy if either or both of these sides fail to progress. But in the tradition of the great Roman tragedy, The Speculator foresees an upset……
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
The Friday night game pits the Doggies against the all-conquering Cats in what looks like mission impossible. However, as far as I am concerned this game is one that the Dogs can win. Two things need to happen for the Cats to be stopped. Firstly, pressure must be applied to the Geelong ball carrier, particularly the likes of Harley, Scarlett and Milburn who are all so efficient at running the ball out of defence. The Dogs forward line is small and mobile and can apply the necessary pressure to stop Geelong form setting up off half back.
The Dogs must also win the contested football. They must be prepared to bleed for this cause. Collingwood have shown the rest of the AFL how it is done. Tackle, tackle, tackle and then tackle some more. The old adage that “if it bleeds, you can kill it” applies here. Geelong are a wonderful football team but my feeling is that they might just be getting a little bit ahead of themselves. The Doggies will be up for this one and are a huge value proposition this weekend.
Dogs by 9 points.
Hawthorn v St Kilda
This match has the potential to be a rather dour affair. Hawthorn go in as an easing favourite but really look the winners here despite St Kilda’s recent record against them being very good.
Ross Lyon will have been losing sleep this week trying to work out how to stop superstar Lance Franklin and his trusty sidekick Jarryd Roughead. With 180 odd goals between them this year, this pair of power forwards can rip apart any side at their pleasure. I fancy that Hudghton will get Buddy and Fisher will go to Roughead initially with those roles being swapped should things get out of hand. I expect Lyon will also play spare men in defence in order to turn this match into a two hour arm wrestle.
At the other end, the Hawks will be hoping that Trent Croad can take his place in the side for his date with Nick Riewoldt. Riewoldt has had a terrific last couple of months and is the one man standing between Hawthorn and their first Grand Final appearance in 17 years. He won’t be afforded the space that Collingwood allowed him last week however and if Lyon puts men behind the ball as expected, you can guarantee that Clarkson will follow suit.
The real upshot here though is that St Kilda must convincingly win the midfield battle to have any chance. I don’t really like their chances though as they are coming up against the best midfield in the business. Mitchell, Sewell, Hodge, Bateman, Lewis and Crawford should have too many guns for Hayes, Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo and Ball, if he plays. Hawthorn, at the end of the day have more firepower than the Saints and if the midfield battle is anywhere near break even, they will win.
Hawks by 47 points.
Best Bets:
Western Bulldogs 1-39 points, $7.25 Hawthorn 40-59 points. $4.40 Jarryd Roughead leading goal kicker of the weekend. $8.00
Have a super weekend.
29 August 2008 The Speculator - AFL Football
Cheats, Scumbags and Larrikins - within the Umpire Fraternity
Umpires are like all of us, they are fallible. A look over any number of Olympic
15 August 2008 The Speculator - AFL Football
Cheats, Scumbags and Larrikins - within the Umpire Fraternity
Umpires are like all of us, they are fallible. A look over any number of Olympic events will tell you that all is often not what it seems and that some athletes have been the beneficiary of “hometown” decisions. I was watching a Chinese bloke in the boxing ring the other night. He was fighting a European boxer. A quick check of the score revealed what appeared to be a close contest; the Chinese guy had “scored” a number of points and was seemingly right in this up to his ears.
Reality though, was that this poor sod had spent the best part of the last eight minutes (4 by 2 minute rounds at the Olympics) getting his head punched in. He had been propped up by the judges who were desperate to get their man through to the next round. Sanity prevailed on this occasion but it is crystal clear that all is not right with the judges at these particular Olympics.
Champion shooter Russell Mark said as much this morning after he returned from Beijing. He claims that a Chinese shooter in his event was being awarded points for targets that he didn’t hit. The judges lifted this guy to a bronze medal. It is an outrage.
Similarly in AFL, the umpires are human. All of them follow an AFL team and it is only reasonable to assume that their team of choice might get a better that even rub of the green at times. The Speculator suggests that the AFL quiz each umpire as to their team of choice and do not appoint umpires to games where there may be even a hint of a conflict of interest.
Port Adelaide v Collingwood
Collingwood pulled a rabbit out of the hat last week and won’t find Port any tougher. Assessed prices: Port Adelaide $5.00 Collingwood $1.25
Essendon v Adelaide
On face value, Adelaide should win but Essendon can be forgiven one bad performance and could represent value here. Assessed prices: Essendon $2.50 Adelaide $1.67
Melbourne v West Coast
Not an important or interesting enough game to consider as an investment opportunity. Assessed prices: Melbourne N/A West Coast N/A
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
Last chance for Brisbane and they can win at home against a foe that is looking toward September. Assessed prices: Brisbane $2.38 Western Bulldogs $1.72
Sydney v Geelong
Sydney got out of jail last week. Doubt they can do so again this time.. Assessed prices: Sydney $5.26 Geelong $1.23
Richmond v Hawthorn
Hawthorn will win. The question is can Buddy get the ton. He needs nine and is a chance of getting them. Assessed prices: Richmond $11.00 Hawthorn $1.10
Carlton v North Melbourne
Match of the round and hard to pick a winner. The Kangas have won five on end but Carlton has enough match winners to be a genuine chance. Assessed prices: Carlton $2.13 North Melbourne $1.88
Fremantle v St Kilda
Hard game to tip. Fremantle have been competitive recently and St Kilda has to take a long, hard look at itself. Leave me out of it. Assessed prices: Fremantle $1.67 St Kilda $2.50
Tough to find value this week:
Collingwood $1.42 Hawthorn $1.16
The Speculator’s best multi:
Collingwood WIN/ Hawthorn WIN $1.64
The Speculator’s margin multi:
Collingwood UNDER 39.5 points / Hawthorn OVER 39.5 points $5.06
See you later.
8 August 2008 The Speculator - AFL Football
I Think I Will Join Alan and the Shaw Boys for a Drink
Somebody told me that the five ring circus is due to roll into downtown Beijing tonight. I’m glad that I was told because the only circus that has been on show this week as far as I am concerned has been the one at the Lexus Centre, with Eddie McGuire doing a fine job in his role as ringmaster. In a world of global warming, the Olympic games, escalating oil prices and the war in the middle-east how is it that the escapades of a couple of idiots that went out on a bender and had a minor scrape with a parked car can command anything up to the first dozen pages in Melbourne’s major daily newspaper?
Dual Norm Smith medal winner Andrew McLeod plays his 300th game of AFL football this weekend, as does the little champ from Hawthorn, Brownlow Medallist Shane Crawford. These two ornaments to the game have had their time in the sun dimmed by the overzealous, ambulance chasing journalistic community who again have shown their true colours. The story this week should have been Crawford and McLeod instead we are left with page after page of opinion about what really is a storm in a teacup at Collingwood. Didak will most likely not be at Collingwood next year but there will be no shortage of suitors because he is a sublime talent. Heath Shaw will more than likely be given another chance.
In any event, one wishes that the journalistic community may have exercised the same moderation in this case that they expect from our AFL stars. One thing is certain though, the way that the columnists have carried on this week is enough to drive even an old pro like me to drink. Now if I can just find Alan’s phone number…….
Melbourne v Geelong
There have been some huge upsets in the history of AFL football. Unfortunately, Melbourne won’t be pulling off another one here. Assessed prices: Melbourne $51.00 Geelong $1.02
Carlton v Port Adelaide
The big Fevolenko might have a day out lined up here. Carlton will win and keep their September dream alive for another week. Assessed prices: Carlton $1.27 Port Adelaide $4.76
Hawthorn v Brisbane
The Lions season is unravelling in a hurry. This is not the ideal fixture for them to right the ship. Franklin the freak will take care of them here. Assessed prices: Hawthorn $1.27 Brisbane $4.76
Collingwood v St Kilda
Collingwood’s season is now on the edge of oblivion and with the week that they have had it is hard to see them beating a pretty good St Kilda side. Assessed prices: Collingwood $2.38 St Kilda $1.72
Sydney v Fremantle
Sydney is just going but need this win much more than the Dockers. At home they should get the points. Assessed prices: Sydney $1.23 Fremantle $5.26
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
The Kangaroos continue to defy the odds and are a big threat to do so again. Assessed prices: North Melbourne $2.01 Western Bulldogs $2.00
Adelaide v Richmond
Really good game this one. I like Richmond on the basis that they will run the ball at the Crows and take them on. With their increasing injury toll the Crows are struggling for an avenue to goal at the moment. Assessed prices: Adelaide $2.13 Richmond $1.88
West Coast v Essendon
The Eagles were poor again last week. I’m tipping Essendon but not with any confidence. Assessed prices: West Coast $2.50 Essendon $1.67
There is some big value around this weekend:
Sydney $1.40 North Melbourne $2.30 Richmond $2.40 West Coast $2.75
The Speculator’s best multi:
Sydney WIN/ North Melbourne WIN/ Richmond WIN $7.72
The Speculator’s margin multi:
Sydney OVER 39.5 points / Richmond UNDER 39.5 points $10.50
Bye for now.
1 August 2008 The Speculator - AFL Football The Ugly Side of Football Journalism in AFL football is getting to the point of being out of control. There once was a time where journalists would report the facts and write opinion pieces only where such pieces served to enhance the reputation of the game. Sadly, in the 21st century this is now no longer the case.
I was watching with a fair degree of interest the events that took place at the Richmond Football Club last week with the sacking of Football Director, Greg Miller. What should have been an in-house personnel adjustment became a media circus long before the unfortunate man was even aware of his imminent departure.
And the aftermath, with The Age’s Caroline Wilson and her smug response on Channel Nine’s Footy Classified, was nothing short of disgraceful. Wilson has been campaigning for Miller’s dismissal very publicly for some time now.
The fact that she has leveraged her now very public position to push for Miller’s removal is, in The Speculator’s view unethical. Given that Wilson’s chief employment comes from the media and she holds no position at the Richmond Football Club, one wonders how she is even qualified to offer commentary about the internal personnel dynamics at the Tigers.
Wilson, like many of her fellow journalists should stick to writing the facts and leave the opinion pieces to those that have actually given something of substance back to the game. Parasites like Wilson though are too smart by half.
They know that in today’s journalistic landscape, the lines between fact and opinion are very blurred and that only the astute observer can tell the difference. It is on the ignorance of the naïve and ignorant majority that they prey and this gifts them the support that they need in order to drive their petty agenda driven careers.
Collingwood v Hawthorn
Both sides have dropped their last couple. Hawthorn however should have toppled Geelong last week whilst the Pies were nothing short of terrible against the Bombers. I am tipping the Hawks but with some caution as this is often the type of backs to the wall game that Collingwood win. Assessed prices: Collingwood $2.63 Hawthorn $1.61
Essendon v Melbourne
Essendon are going beautifully at the moment and will sustain their late season charge against the sorry Demons,. Assessed prices: Essendon $1.16 Melbourne $7.14
Adelaide v Carlton
Carlton has a good record in Adelaide and will be buoyed by last weeks come from behind win against the Dogs. Adelaide did the job in Sydney last week and need to win this sort of game to keep its finals hopes alive. The Crows, just. Assessed prices: Adelaide $1.88 Carlton $2.12
Geelong v Richmond
On face value Geelong wins and wins well but I am giving the Tigers a real chance of causing a boilover here. They are playing some very good football and have some real pace through the middle which could give the Cats trouble. Assessed prices: Geelong $1.29 Richmond $4.34
North Melbourne v Brisbane
The fact that the Kangaroos have sold this home game and it is being played at Carrara might very well cost them big time. Brisbane, despite their poor recent form should win. Assessed prices: North Melbourne $2.32 Brisbane $1.75
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sydney is finished and the Dogs will feast on the carcass at Manuka. Assessed prices: Western Bulldogs $1.25 Sydney $5.00
St Kilda v Port Adelaide
St Kilda returns home to lick their wounds after last weeks shock defeat in Perth. Port is not a good football team though and is just the tonic that the Saints need. Assessed prices: St Kilda $1.23 Port Adelaide $5.26
Fremantle v West Coast
The Derby. Big name for a game that means absolutely nothing. Assessed prices: Fremantle $1.85 West Coast $2.17
There is some very good value around this weekend:
Collingwood $2.90 Essendon $1.22 Carlton $2.15 Richmond $5.00 Western Bulldogs $1.42 West Coast $2.40
The Speculator’s best multi:
Essendon WIN/ Western Bulldogs WIN/ West Coast WIN $4.15
The Speculator’s margin multi:
Richmond UNDER 39.5 points / Carlton UNDER 39.5 points $15.12
See you next week.
25 July 2008 The Speculator - AFL Football Hungry Hawks to Clip Cat’s Claws Tomorrow night at the home of football, the heavyweight title fight that we have all been waiting for between the Cats and the Hawks finally takes place. It has been almost 18 months since the last time that these two fabulous sides last fired a shot in anger at each other, so we have nothing at all to go by in terms of recent form against each other. We have to do the next best thing and consult The Speculator’s tarot reader for the outcome of Friday night’s titanic clash.
On this occasion the cards have fallen in favour of Hawthorn. And why not? Well, for starters they were pathetic after half time last week when they gifted the four points to St Kilda. Secondly, they are playing injured with key playmakers like Bateman and Lewis still on the way to regaining some match fitness. Thirdly, their opponent is the reigning premier and has lost only once this season and finally, their best player Luke Hodge may not even get to the line on account of his partner deciding that the best time to give birth to their firstborn might just be this Friday night.
But my friends, do not let that stop you from taking the overs. This Hawthorn side are for real and have the necessary forward set up to kick a winning score provided they get enough of the pill.
To that end the fact that Cameron Ling is not playing, he was last seen searching Cat Park for what was left of his cheekbone, is of tremendous benefit to the Hawks. He is the best tagger in the business and his absence will free up somebody like Sewell or Mitchell to get a little bit more of the ball than they would have otherwise expected. Oh…..and some fella by the name of Ablett won’t be there to spoil the Hawthorn party.
Hawthorn v Geelong
Disregard the Hawks last hour of football and they go into this match with an excellent chance. The Cats are a great side though and this will be a clinker of a match. If you like the Hawks take the $3.20 tomorrow and also back them at around $7 for the flag. If they win, that quote will be sliced in half. If they lose you still won’t get much more than $8 for their premiership chances. Assessed prices: Hawthorn $2.27 Geelong $1.79
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
The Blues are on their last chance and have a hope against the Doggies who might be hitting a flat patch. Assessed prices: Western Bulldogs $1.59 Carlton $2.70
Essendon v Collingwood
Collingwood will bounce back from last weeks defeat to end Essendon’s season here. Assessed prices: Essendon $4.35 Collingwood $1.30
West Coast v St Kilda
St Kilda who are now playing for a top four spot will smash an Eagles side that have packed it in. Assessed prices: West Coast $21.00 St Kilda $1.05
Richmond v Brisbane
This is a good game. Richmond can run the Lions off their feet at home and chalk up another win on their way to a surprise finals appearance. Assessed prices: Richmond $1.98 Brisbane $2.03
Sydney v Adelaide
Sydney has been ordinary lately but will beat a Crows side that are struggling to find 22 fit players. Assessed prices: Sydney $1.20 Adelaide $5.88
Port Adelaide v Fremantle
Who cares? Seriously, who gives a rats a…? Intelligent people won’t even consider betting on this game. Assessed prices: N/A
Melbourne v North Melbourne
Melbourne will have a go but the Kangaroos have too much at stake here to let this slip. Assessed prices: Melbourne $7.14 North Melbourne $1.16
Now, here is the value:
Hawthorn $3.20 St Kilda $1.13 Brisbane $2.25 Sydney $1.40 Carlton $3.45
The Speculator’s best multi:
Hawthorn WIN/ St Kilda WIN/ Brisbane WIN $8.13
The Speculator’s margin multi:
Carlton UNDER 39.5 points / Sydney OVER 39.5 points $15.00
Au revoir.
18 July 2008 The Speculator - AFL Football All Hail Robert Harvey In 1988 Australia celebrated its bicentenary. Australian’s both young and old marvelled in amazement at Expo 88 as it was held in Brisbane. We took lessons from our past and looked on with awe at what was planned for our future.
Bob Hawke was our Prime Minister, iron lady Margaret Thatcher was at the helm in Britain whilst Ronnie Reagan was seeing out his second and final term as custodian of the free world. It seems such a long time ago.
The Olympics in Seoul came and went with Ben Johnson and his drug fuelled performance the headline. We listened to Bros, Chicago and Michael Jackson on our cassette recorders. Guns’ N Roses were making a splash as was Christopher Skase who had just purchased Channel 7 in Perth from our old mate Alan Bond.
Jana Wendt was hosting A Current Affair. We watched A Country Practice and laughed at Con the Fruiterer and Kylie Mole in The Comedy Company. We could get a slab of VB for a “lobster” and a lobster for a “tenner.” We could go to the flicks for not much more than a “fiver” where we might have seen Who Framed Roger Rabbit, Die Hard or A Fish Called Wanda.
The new Parliament House was opened and Prozac was made available for those of us that were depressed by how much it cost.
Oh, and Robert Harvey was playing professional football. Think about that for a minute. As all the above has come and gone, this great man has continued to play. When we look to the present for something that keeps us connected to our cherished past we need look no further than the man that wears the number 35 for St Kilda.
North Melbourne v Collingwood
North escaped form jail yet again last week and match up well against Collingwood. They can cause an upset here. Assessed prices: North Melbourne $2.63 Collingwood $1.61
Geelong v Western Bulldogs
The match of the season to date has been robbed of Ling and Ablett. Still like the Cats at home in what should be a tight and tough contest all day. Assessed prices: Geelong $1.58 Western Bulldogs $2.70
Richmond v Essendon
Really good game here with both sides trying to keep their slim finals hopes alive. Richmond to win a nail biter. Assessed prices: Richmond $2.00 Essendon $2.01
Brisbane v West Coast
Brisbane hosts the Eagles in what is a welcome opportunity to grab a win. Assessed prices: Brisbane $1.02 West Coast $51.00
St Kilda v Hawthorn
The Saints match up well against the Hawks but I still fancy the Hawk boys to have a little too much polish in what looks a very good game.. Assessed prices: St Kilda $3.70 Hawthorn $1.37
Carlton v Sydney
Another interesting match. The fact that this is being played in Melbourne gives the Blues a huge chance. Assessed prices: Carlton $2.27 Sydney $1.79
Port Adelaide v Adelaide
The “showdown” has had the sting taken out of it by Port’s atrocious form and the Crows injury list. Adelaide have more to play for though and should win.. Assessed prices: Port Adelaide $2.70 Adelaide $1.58
Fremantle v Melbourne
Fremantle look the likely winner of this meaningless affair but Melbourne might just have enough nerve to pinch another one form them. Assessed prices: Fremantle $1.30 Melbourne $4.35
Lots of good football this weekend with the value outlined for you below:
Essendon $2.25 Brisbane $1.08 Carlton $2.40 Adelaide $1.80 Fremantle $1.42
The Speculator’s best multi:
Essendon WIN/ Adelaide WIN/ Fremantle WIN $5.75
The Speculator’s margin multi:
Carlton UNDER 39.5 points / Brisbane OVER 39.5 points $5.73
Have a great weekend.
11 July 2008 The Speculator - AFL Football
Demetriou Dismisses Due Diligence
In the opinion of this pundit Andrew Demetriou is incompetent. Let’s get that out of the way nice and early. In fact, the AFL boss is, in my opinion incompetent on so many levels that I could write a book on his shortcomings. Anybody that watched the game at ANZ Stadium last weekend between Sydney and Collingwood should be under no allusion that the state of the ground was the responsibility of the so called AFL boss, a man who collects a cool million bucks for each year that he “runs” the AFL.
He is lucky to have so many much more capable lieutenants. Otherwise, the place would be more of a debacle.
You read me correctly; Andrew Demetriou “earns” one million dollars of yours and my hard earned cash every year to run this competition. That means, as the top dog Demetriou and Demetriou alone is responsible for providing a safe working environment for those that provide the entertainment.
I don’t care about the chain of command or who the responsibility for the state of the ground is delegated to, as the boss the buck stops with Demetriou. I don’t care about the post match spin doctoring and doublespeak, as the boss the buck stops with Demetriou. Andrew Demetriou should be embarrassed by the state of the playing surface at ANZ Stadium last weekend and he should count himself very lucky that there were no injuries as a result of the shifting surface. I am amazed that this muppet allowed a game to be played on a ground that had a mobile grandstand placed over it only days earlier. A fact, mind you that he would have been made well aware of prior to the 2008 AFL fixture being released.
Further to this point, I am dumbfounded that the media have not taken him personally to task over the affair. Have no fear though, here at The Mailman myself and my esteemed and educated colleagues will continue to confront the real issues head on.
Carlton v St Kilda
Good game with the attack minded Carton a big chance of picking apart the tempo football of the Saints. Assessed prices: Carlton $1.89 St Kilda $2.12
Collingwood v Adelaide
Collingwood dismantled the Swans with aplomb last week but I fancy that Adelaide will be over the odds here. Assessed prices: Collingwood $1.64 Adelaide $2.56
Geelong v Fremantle
Fremantle make long trip to Skilled Stadium where they will cop a fearful hiding. Assessed prices: Geelong $1.03 Fremantle $33.50
Essendon v Brisbane
Brisbane will be out for redemption after a poor showing a fortnight ago. Essendon is in good form but will find the Lions a big hurdle to jump. Assessed prices: Essendon $3.45 Brisbane $1.41
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne
North Melbourne will be trying to revive their finals hopes against a Port side that are playing as though they couldn’t care either way. Assessed prices: Port Adelaide $1.92 North Melbourne $2.08
Hawthorn v Sydney
Hawthorn hasn’t beaten Sydney for five years. That run will surely end on Sunday. Assessed prices: Hawthorn $1.30 Sydney $4.35
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
Good win by Melbourne last round but the Dogs won’t give them any more respite here. Assessed prices: Western Bulldogs $1.08 Melbourne $12.50
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