       |
 |
 |
 |
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
Quick Links
Thoroughbred Racehorse Owners' Association
Champions - The Australian Racing Museum
Want a job in the horse racing industry?
|
21 November 2008 The Mailman - Melbourne Metro Meeting
The Real Sponsorship I'd Like To See ...
I know that AFL clubs have been renaming their footy grounds for years but the move by the Melbourne Racing Club to rename Sandown “Betfair Park” has opened the floodgates to a whole new source of funding for the Racing Industry.
I reckon that this could be the start of a sponsorship lead recovery and could almost solve the funding shortfall headache for the Big H.
There are lots of opportunities for companies to sponsor various tracks and the like in racing, but the one that stands out for mine is a match that is absolutely made in Heaven – Silvers Circus and Integrity Services.
if you have read the transcript of the Incinerator inquiry, this sponsorship will need no further explanation. The benefits of this relationship will be greater than just financial. There could be a high degree of cross training.
Dayle “The Delegator” Brown is perfectly suited to the job of Ring Leader. This is a critical role in the circus. You have to prance around making it look like you are doing something, but the whole while you are just dishing off all the tasks to your newly appointed underlings.
Bails isn’t the only one asking what Dazzling Dayle actually does now that he has handballed all his work to the juniors. Brown has even taken Crammy on to fetch his coffees, since Browny’s mate got the tap on the shoulder not to apply for the Manager’s gig.
Reardon will no doubt get something good, being an old mate of Bails’ from Queensland. Actually, he could probably be in charge of the clowns.
Or he could run one of those gimmicky stands you see at the circus - you know the one, with the clowns head that move side to side and their wide open mouths.
Only problem, the junior stewards would get sick of sitting still every night having little balls shoved down their throats. Its bad enough having to put up with that during the day.
Mark Hill could be put in charge of catering. Actually, after the fiasco at the last stewards BBQ, perhaps not.
Forty of the primest of prime marinated Porterhouse arrived for Hilly (who volunteered for the role as soon as the email went around) to cook. Six made it to the table. The man is a machine.
Anyway, now I’ve helped solve the financial crisis at RVL, I’ll get back to the races.
Race 1 - Red Flair looks the one in the "Keep Your Money in Your Wallet" Handicap. Zavana is yet to win, but their is a bit of touting for her.
6 from 9, 2 & 4
Race 2 - Galloping Hill comes off a solid fourth in a Listed Race, which places her well here, but respect the D Oliver ride.
7 from 3, 1, 2 & 8
Race 3 – Flying Ruby is living up to her name but meets Abeauty 2.5 kg the worse at the weights. Midnight Blues is in the same boat as Abeauty weight wise, but then gets the claiming jockey and is back in class, backing up.
7 from 4, 2, 3 & 6
Race 4 – Sensational Toy is back in class without anyway weight penalty.
5 from 7, 1, 4 & 9
Race 5 – Cocinero will appreciate racing at this level, claims 1.5kgs and loves Sandown Lakeside, although the track condition may be his downfall. This is where Itsamonty may step up.
1 from 2, 7, 9 & 6
Race 6 – The Eclipse is looking like a nice little race with a lot of chances. Bird of Prey won the Group 2 matriarch last start and drops slightly to a G3 here, AND drops 1kg. Instructor is having his third start in 15 days but the stable knows what it is doing. Mission Critical will be fitter, but will need to be.
2 from 1, 5 & 4
Race 7 – Pit Lane look the goods to step up and win one here., but Anyways with the claim will be the threat.
4 from 3, 5, 2 & 1
Race 8 – Whitehaven Girl is due a win, but Occurence has been racing in better company.
1 from 4, 2 & 9
Good punting!
14 November 2008 The Mailman - Melbourne Metro Meeting
Zip Zip Hooray As Betfair Bangs Up Big Bucks
For that proportion of the community who have as much interest in horse racing outside the Spring Racing Carnival as Paris Hilton has in astro physics, the thoroughbred industry goes into recess for the next 45 weeks.
That is their loss. Night Racing on Fridays at the Valley is a great way to wind up the week over the warmer months. Grab a spot in the Octagonal Bar with your mates, make some investments and build a bank for the weekend.
And this weekend, take that pot of money to Betfair Park on Saturday and turn it into something.
Betfair Park, if hear you ask? That’s right, the racetrack formerly known as Sandown. Under a ground breaking deal, the once reviled betting agency that has now stamped itself on the Australian punting psyche has shown it’s support for the racing industry by stumping up some dough to bolster the coffers of the Melbourne Racing Club. And it has sponsored a few races to boot.
*Note to our Betfair readers, The Mailman is available for sponsorship too. “Betfair’s The Mailman” has a nice ring to it. You know my email.
In a statement on the MRC website, CEO Warren Brown said “In establishing this new relationship with Betfair, we fully acknowledge and respect both Tabcorp and the current wagering model. The TAB since its privatisation has been the financial backbone of the Victorian racing industry and will so remain. But this sponsorship arrangement recognises the additional revenue opportunities for racing by embracing technology and innovation”.
Mr Brown is spot on. Betfair and corporate bookmakers are here to stay. That may upset the TAB and Victorian bookmakers but they are not going anywhere.
If I was a Victorian bookmaker, what I would be upset about is the fact that I cannot operate on a level playing field as the corporate bookmakers.
You are told by RVL what you pay on both the racing product and other sporting products, while the Darwin based bookies are all on different and better deals.
You are told when you can accept bets and are forced to set up token offices at pre-determined locations to meet some old fashioned idea that you have to be fielding somewhere to take a bet.
You have to compete with businesses that have a lower cost structure than you, by virtue of the fact that the organisation licencing you hits you with an impost that makes you uncompetitve.
You have to compete with Betfair but are not allowed to use it yourself.
It makes you wonder why any bookie actually bothers staying in Victoria. If it was me, I’d have shut up shop and heading North ages ago. It makes you wonder if they actually want any bookies in our state.
Now on to the races.
I understand that the MRC have couriered the trophy for the Sandown Classic (race 7) over to Lloyd’s place already. There are some very good horses in this race – Light Vision, Baughurst, Capecover, Douro Valley among them. But none of them are in Zipping’s class.
His Cox Plate run was excellent and with a different pace, may have won. His Melbourne Cup run was a good hit out and pocketed him $115000, not as good as the $210000 he will get for winning this, but win he will. Get on board.
Throw Douro Valley, Capecover, Light Vision and Baughurst for the multiples, but the race ends there.
1 from 6, 2, 5 & 3
The Betfair Sandown Guineas looks to be a bit more even, with the better chances all coming off black type placings at their last start. They are the ones to concentrate on. Fillies don’t win this often, but you have to respect Marveen here. She drops 2.5kgs for this, taking on the males but she will race handy and be in this right at the end.
Ooleo steps up to the mile for the first time and should be included because of the Clare Lindop factor alone. She is in form and puts in a lot of homework on the racing patterns of horses she is racing against. She is a master tactician. Or should that be mistress tactician?
Arjuna looks to have hit some form and Caymans will be fitter. Stokehouse is coming back in distance and despite that query, I wouldn’t be leaving him out of the exotics.
Lucky Thunder has finished third and second at his last two runs, both over 1600 metres. I reckon he is ready to step up to the plate this weekend and he will win. The dead track will not be a concern, although most of these horses have never actually seen any rain before.
5 from 10, 2, 1, 3 & 6
The rest of the card :
Race 1 - Keep your money in your pocket, too many first starters and not much trial form.
2, 6, 7, 8 & 9
Race 2 - Last chance for Instructor, but he will have some strong competition.
6 from 1, 2 7 & 8
Race 3 - Raid the Royals loves Sandown Hillside and dead to slow tracks.
4 from 9, 1, 11 & 10
Race 4 - Yesterday has been thereabouts in good company at this level and gets a more suitable trip here.
4 from 7, 1, 3 & 2
Race 5 - Captain Bax ran well on the unfavourable side of the track down the Flemington straight last start and will be better here.
2 from 7, 3, 5 & 1
Race 8 –Count to Zero stepped up last weekend and will be right in this too. Chasm is the threat, on the up.
3 from 6, 8, 4, 1 & 11
Race 9 – Absolutelyfabulous drops in class and weight, she looks hard to beat here, but being a mares race, go wider in the quaddie.
5 from 6, 11, 2 & 4
Good punting!
12 November 2008 The Mailman - Bendigo Cup Day
ETM & EO’s Brilliant Bendigo Bash
As the highest profile letter deliver currently employed (or contracted) with the Australia Post organisation, I am regularly bombarded with invitations to attend various committee rooms, the Chairman’s Box, high profile marquees and the like.
And I have to tell you, the old polyester shirt and tie have had a working over in the last few weeks. I even had my strides whipped by Megan Gale in the Birdcage. So to speak.
But the one place to which I have yet to crack an invitation, is the Entrepreneur’s Organization table at any racing function ever. Any function hosted by David Hummerston and the ETM Bendigo Cup Day table in particular holds special appeal to me, especially given the calibre of people I would be getting on the soup with.
If I was invited to oil the wheels of business, if you get my drift, I could try to wangle a freebie website out of the boys from DT Digital. If it wasn’t for the fact that my stationary cupboard at home is full of pens, markers and all kinds of stationery courtesy of AP, I could have filled the pockets on my good green suit with the finest Micador supplies money could (almost) buy.
I don’t know what the boys from Strategyn could do for Australia Post, some things money just can’t fix. Or Franklyn - I have reached the pinnacle of my delivery career and no amount of training could make me any better or faster. But I’ve always liked Aboriginal art, so I could hit up Roy Ananda for something to replace the Boulevard of Broken Dreams print that has adorned the wall in the tele room for the last twenty or so years.
But not to be. It’s not as if they don’t have my email address (mailman@themailman.com.au) and just for future reference, I’m not offended by late call ups, second string invitations or wearing someone else’s name tag.
But on to the races. The Bendigo Cup is always a sensational day and the good people of Bendigo could teach the Spring Carnival specialists in Melbourne the difference between a staying race and a sprinting race. There’s no point passing out after race 3, you need to be able to pace yourself so you are still standing as they cross the line in the Franklyn Training 0-78 Handicap at the end of the day.
The Cup itself (race 8) is packed full of good chances this year. Courtney is coming off a very good 2nd in the 0-95 rated race on Cup Day and will be in this a long way. Back him if the Dandaad form line from race 6 holds up. Dropping in distance is the query.
You Beautiful Doll gets in on the weight differential basis relative to his second to Courtney two starts back and Vicello is not the worst and will improve here. Banana Man is stepping up and comes out of another solid race.
Imvula is the form runner coming off an excellent second in the Werribee Cup and is well placed here. The stable is flying but the query has to be the trip, as he is yet to win beyong 1600 metres. Hey Jeune will be competitve and could run aplace at odds.
But the winner should be Glistening. Coming off a 3 1/2 length 5th in the G3 Saab on Cup Day, hw will be value at anything over 8/1, so back him until your nose bleeds, as long as that happens when you get to $10 each way.
6 from 1, 8, 11, 10 & 18
The rest of the card :
Race 1 – Small field, 2yo’s, first starters, no trial form – ticks all the boxes not to bet. Look for the experienced jockey, Dwayne Dunn on Fast Talker or Vlad Duric on Tale of Love.
1 & 5
Race 2 – Oovii is bound to break through soon, if not never back him ever again. He was only narrowly beaten at Echuca and this looks easier.
2 from 5 & 3
Race 3 – I hate fillies races, the equine version is almost as unpredictable as their human counterparts. Throw in the fact that they are maidens and it adds a whole new dimension. This could well be the third of a treble for Dwayne Dunn and I would recommend putting these in an all-up for value.
2 from 6, 9 & 7
Race 4 - Bart Cummings, Clare Lindop and dropping from City class 0-68'er to country maiden - that ticks some boxes for Giotto.
5 from 6, 8 & 4
Race 5 - Rock Home Late has been freshened for the drop in distance and drops back slightly in class here. Dandy Warhols may be saved for the Valley on Friday night, but if she runs, she will be in it a long way. Two of her owners are getting married on Saturday and the band are currently touring - this is the omen bet. Fairy Tale has an excellent first up record and is up to this grade and Meld has returned in excellent order.
6 from 1, 9 & 8
Race 6 - Samburu Warrior has an excellent form line through Carnival winner Dandaad and also the disappointing fave Instructor. Yet to miss a place at Bendigo and a winner over 1600 metres at this track, he is my selection here. L'Ami Louis has returned in good order but being a Zabeel, may be looking for further, but will be thereabouts at the end.
2 from 5, 6, 7 & 1
Race 7 - Why Do You Ask is coming off a win at this distance in a Showcase race at Mornington but jumps dramatically in the weights, especially relative to runner upo in that race, Recycle Tycoon. Tealc gets in at the minimum. Mick Kent can always pull out a good winner at odds, so watch the betting on Cheddington and back it if it starts to shorten.
9 from 6, 8, 1 & 2
Race 9 - Renewable returns after breaking down two years ago. He is a Group 2 winner and if he is right, will go very close, although it is worth noting he is also nominated for some good races at Sandown. Illustration also returns, is unbeaten first up and gets M Rodd.
5 from 6, 1, 7 & 8
Race 10 - Hezabruiser is very good first up and Greg Eurell will be hoping to get some luck back after Apache Cat's failure on Stakes Day. Love You Sometime drops in class and King Carnage is coming off a favourable 4 week break for this.
2 from 7, 5, 4 & 9
Good punting!
10 November 2008 The Mailman - Oaks Day
Magnificent Mailman & Spectacular Speculator Pull Plenty of Pineapples for Punters
For those two far sighted corporations who chose to engage The Mailman and the Speculator to run their Punters Clubs in their respective marquees, their guests are this evening rolling in money.
And the "Clare Lindop Fan Club" has another 75 members this evening after the Mailman interviewed her this morning and proceeded to back all her rides with alarming enthusiasm. But the new fans were not wholly motivated by the money they were collecting thanks to the savvy punting of the Mailman. Clare herself sealed the deal when she saluted to the marquee as she rode past after winning the 4th on Exalted Keetah.
And while the Speculator has a slow start, he came home like a steam train, cleaning up in the last five races, including the quaddie for some ludicrously high percentage.
If you would like one of the Mailman's experts to run your company's Punters Club next Carnival, click here.
Now we turn our attention to Stakes Day, with memories of Valedictum and Tears I Cry still vividly etched in our collective minds.
However, I don't know that there is a 33/1 chance that can win the Emirates Stakes (race 7), let alone a 66/1 chance, given the quality of this field. There is black type form from horses on the up everywhere.
But there is a $21 chance which, on Carnival form to date, should win. I write of Clare Lindop’s ride Serious Speed. There are a number of reasons for this, not least that the Mailman’s luck seems to have rubbed off on young Clare and everything she touches turns to gold at the moment. More importantly, the horse has a very good record at 1600 metres and can win at odds.
The top weight Mentality has the best 1600 metres record in the race, and if you ignore his failure last start in the Epsom, is right in this. He has been freshened for this, however, top weights don’t win this, with the last ten or so winners coming from nearer the bottom of the weights. This will continue this year.
I like Orange County, he is a good tough horse. However, I reckon he is out of his winning range here and is yet to win at 1600 metres and gets no favours in the weights. Sea Battle has a very good form line, made all the better by Rockpecker’s ripping win in the last on Oaks Day. He is 3 from 6 at 1600 metres and 3 from 3 at HQ but steps up to G1 and gets ½ kg extra too.
Snipers Bullet was unlucky to be nabbed on the line by All Silent on Derby Day, and that race will be a good form race for this. The way All Silent finished last start, he looks like he will be storming home here. Ollie is a loss, but Dwayne Dunn is no slouch either.
Bank Robber ran second to Theseo in the Epsom and that form line has stood up. Freshened for this and Shinn is in form, but place best here. Mimi Lebrock was caught wide last start and if ridden differently, will be in the finish here. Conquering will lead them into the straight and if he steals a break and the track is favouring leaders, he will be right in the finish too.
16 from 10, 5, 6, 7 & 15
The rest of the card :
Race 1 – Lord Monty has won down the Flemington straight and C Williams has hit form.
5 from 1, 11, 2 & 10
Race 2 – Kav has Queen’s Kiss humming since he took her over and the Kavanagh-Rodd combination is one of the best.
6 from 14, 5, 1 & 2
Race 3 – Makeadreamcometrue was saved for this race from Oaks Day and will be in it for a long way.
11 and 9 from 6, 3 & 8
Race 4 – Instructor looks the one here from Musket & Rockwood.
11 from 5 & 4
Race 5 – Éclair Fantastic is unbeaten and will start short, but Drumbeats might be ready to break his maiden.
4 from 1, then 5, 2 & 3
Race 6 – The return of Apache Cat is almost the feature of the day. His record first up is sensational and apart from Sunburnt Land, he has these covered.
1 & 8 from 2, 11 & 7
Race 8 – Kav & Roddy again for mine, Princess Marizza to beat Permission to Land (if runs) and Dvine Rebel, but plenty of form around the Valley race with Bird of Fire and Miss Badoura also. El Daana looks to be getting back to form.
9 from 17, 3, 14 & 5
Race 9 – This is a cracking race and you can toss a coin between Light Vision and Baughurst. Capecover will lift and this race could have been Our Smoking Joe’s Grand final.
2 from 1, 4 & 7
Race 10 – Rightfully Yours looks the one, but plenty of chances here and go wide in the quaddie to snag it.
10 from 3, 9, 2, 1 & 7
Good punting!
5 November 2008 The Mailman - Oaks Day
Bart Bradmanesque & Slammin' Sam to Scuttle Scarlatti
Rarely in life does one person dominate their area of expertise so wholly that they simply represent that sport to all generations and forever more.
In Australian sport, Sir Donald Bradman has been the only person to have reached that level. Until now. Bart Cummings elevated himself to that level for thoroughbred racing on Tuesday as Viewed crossed the line in the 2008 Melbourne Cup a short half head away from Bauer, giving him twelve Melbourne Cups.
It seems all the concerns over the so called "international raiders" was misplaced as they were shown to simply not handle the Australian style and tempo of staying races and seem to prefer the more sedate and gentlemanly going on their home soil. For the UK runners, they seemed to run like their cricket teams plays cricket.
The Irish runners played more like the Indian cricket team however, deciding to play outside the rules of racing with their disgraceful team racing effort. Karma sorted them out however, and they were just a bit too smart for themselves. Bails and Co decided that they would let this one slide, given the biggest Irish joke of all was the fact that they had wasted so much money coming out and had then tricked themselves out of any prize money.
And the final word on Cup Day, congratulations to Mick Goodie for his excellent preparation of the track, it raced beautifully today and the VRC is very lucky to have such an expert in charge of their track.
But enough of that, it's time for Blokes, I mean Oaks Day and what a great day it looks like being and possibly a bit easier to find a winner than Cup Day. The words of my great grandfather were echoing in my head on both Derby Day and Cup Day - odds on, walk on - and I bet around both Whobe and Daintree Duke. It's just that I bet around the eventual winner too!
The Oaks (race 6) looks a different story. Samantha Miss has taken all before her north of the border and was sensational when third in the Cox Plate. Back to her own sex here and on equal weights, this classic looks to be hers.
However. I have learned my lesson. she has yet to run 2500 metres, she rises 8kg from the Cox Plate and will start odds. But now I'm just trying to look for excuses. Have two quaddies - one with Samantha Miss one out and anothe with the field.
Miss Scarlatti will not go down without a fight however and you can be certain that her jockey will not let her get boxed in on the rail again. That ride may have been a blessing in disguise, however, a she should have kept some in her tank from the Wakeful. Rocha won the wakeful by default but was probably unlucky at her previous start so that balances things out. Kimillsy has been close to Samantha Miss in Sydney but I reckon Mark and Kim are just here for a party. Estee may be getting beyond her range but is a classy type. On Carnival form so far, include both of Bart's runners - Think Money & Allez Wonder. Ditto Glowlamp who will be better for two Melbourne runs. Kav & Rodd are a great combination, so include Tobouggie Woogie at odds.
1 from 5, then 3, 2, 8, 13 & 11, 9
The rest of the card :
Race 1 - 4 from 5, 10, 9 & 15
Race 2 - 7 & 3 from 1 (if runs), 13, 10 & 12
Race 3 - 3 from 2, 6, 8, 1 & 10
Race 4 - 4 from 5, 7, 2, 9 & 1
Race 5 - 3 5 8 9 10, but keep your money in your pocket here.
Race 7 - Bondarchuk is back in class from the G1 Thousand Guineas and has a form line through Derby winner Rebel Raider. Sarem is stepping up in class but is in winning form and beat home Orca at her last start. Giant Jewels is on the up and the 1800 metres should suit.
5 from 3, 1, 2, 9 & 4
Race 8 - Lucky Secret is back in class but only cops one kg. He wins. Grand Duels will appreciate the straight. Here De Angels is the same. Belong to Many drops 3kgs which brings her into it and Biscayne Bay will improve back in class. Snappy Tom is back from WFA and meets Lucky Secret 6.5 kgs the better. Include.
1 from 14, then 2, 3, 10 & 9
Race 9 - Magical Pearl was in good winning form in ratings races before having a bit of bad luck when just 2 lengths off the winner in the jayco Crystal Mile. Coconut Grove is coming off a trio of wins and his only loss at 1600 metres was in the Randwick guineas. He will be overs and should be included in multiples. Hachiman will only win if you don't back him so include too.
- 4 from 11, 4, 2 & 1
Good punting!
2 November 2008 The Mailman - Cup Day
Barbaricus to Bag Big Bucks
While all the mainstream media focus has been on the international runners in the 2008 themailman.com.au Melbourne Cup, it is easy to miss one of the great training feats right here on our own doorstep. One eight of the Melbourne Cup field is trained by Melbourne’s own, Danny O’Brien. This is an outstanding effort from a young trainer and due recognition for his hard working staff.
It will be a massive celebration if one of Barbaricus, Master O’Reilly or Gallopin can get up and I’ll be having a little bit of Barbaricus with my $1.50 each way, great value at the $21 morning line while everyone else backs the overseas horses.
On the so called “internationals raiders”, who do the connections of Septimus think they are? The RVL policy on preparation of tracks has been well documented and should be of no surprise to anybody when track manager Mick Goodie prepared a dead 4, later upgraded to a Good 3. The track was in excellent order and there were no complaints from anybody until some clown from Coolmore decided to throw up a red herring.
They will become the quintessential Irish joke if they scratch their horse after bringing him half way across the world and refuse to race on a track prepared exactly as they were told it would be prepared. If their game plan was to come over and then bully the VRC into changing the policy to suit them, they are going to be very disappointed.
Unless it pours, the track will drain away the small amount of rain we are likely to receive and the wind will do the rest. Expect a dead 4 track to be upgraded to a good 3 by about race4.
Now on to the big race :
Master O’Reilly has been held back a bit this year and will be fresher in this. The way the Cox Plate was run, that was just a barrier trial for him and this is his Grand Final anyway. He has been set for this and could give you value for money if you back him each way.
Honolulu gets into this 6kgs under his winning (WFA) weight in the G2 Doncaster Cup, but interestingly, Johnny Murtagh goes to Septimus, if that is any indication as to who the stable thinks is the better horse. Honolulu was unable to beats Yeats in the Goodwood three months ago
On the face of it Prize Lady has no chance, but she is an Auckland Cup winner and unbeaten at 3200 metres, so she will get the trip, the query being how fast she can do it and on a good track.
For some people, there is a query on the fitness of Yellowstone. My query is on the ability of the horse at this level and the mental capacity of the jockey. No chance here.
Vareveez is by the same sire as jumping superstar Karasi, and will get the distance. However, she hasn’t won for over a year and is coming off a 16 length defeat at her last start (14 lengths behind Mad Rush. She drops 6 kgs here, but Mad Rush drops 5.5 kgs. She is not in form enough to make up that margin.
Viewed didn’t set the world on fire in the Mackinnon but this is his grand final. Expect better from him. Bauer was impressive in the Geelong Cup, but he will find this a touch more competitive, although the weight drop brings him into place contention. Gallopin falls into the same category courtesy of his win in the Moonee Valley Cup.
Ice Chariot will drop out near the back and stay there. There’s not much to say about Guyno. Someone has to finish last. Newport fluked a win in the Metrop and will find this lot too hot. If Red Lord runs a place, you’ll see a naked man running down the Flemington straight between race 7 and race 8. It won’t be me, I’ll just pay someone to do it.
C’est La Guerre is one of the better local chances in this. His run in the strangely paced Cox Plate was solid and his preparation to date has not been entirely dissimilar to Efficient’s last year. He drops 3.5kgs in weight and will be running on. Place chance in a deeper field than the EI affected 2007 Cup.
Nom de Jeu has had an excellent lead up through NZ, including a couple of G1 placings behind Princess Coup in NZ. I put her poor run in the Cox Plate down to a bad ride from a jockey who should be forced to race for six months at country tracks before he is allowed back to a city meet in Australia, although now it seems he is out for 4 months anyway, courtesy of NZ stewards. Princess Coup’s run in the MacKinnon was probably one run too many and we can disregard that in terms of evaluating Nom de Jeu. He is a place chance.
I cannot ignore Zipping either, although you can never be certain as to which of Lloyd’s horses have been set for which race. He is always competitive and will be running on, it just depends on how much he is giving them when he starts his run and whether he can catch them. Place for mine.
Barbaricus is my favourite local runner. The blinkers on last start worked and nearly won him the MacKinnon. He will be right in this for a long way and if the race pans out his way, he could be thereabouts at the end. He was impressive but unlucky in the Mackinnon and drops 8kgs here.
Moatize is another good place chance and his trainer knows a thing or too about this race. Horses coming through the Saab Quality usually don’t win the Cup. The only horse to have done so in recent times is Brew in 2000, also trained by Bart. Beware leaving this runner out of the multiples.
Littorio is better than a $34 chance and you can ignore his run in the Mackinnon or Practice Stakes. He was never going to be ridden hard when his Grand final is just three days away. He has been set for this and Blackiston has done everything he can to prepare him for the race. He will be in this for a long way.
Mad Rush had a great run in the Caulfield Cup and has been touted as the one here. He is yet to run 3200 metres, let alone win at that distance so I can’t pick him out of this field. He can run a place, especially with D Oliver on board.
Alessandro Volta is Septimus’ pacemaker. Save your money. He’ll lead out, putting on a solid tempo. Septimus will drop in behind and race handy. Septimus drops 3.5kgs from his G1 win in the Irish St Leger which he won by 13 lengths, Ignore the comments from the owners about scratching Septimus if the track is rated as it was on Derby Day. In his last four starts, he has won on the good twice. If it rains or the track is over watered, he will grow an extra leg and win.
Profound Beauty won a Listed Race in Ireland in a very decisive manner, before running third on a heavy track at her last start at G3 level. She is a big mare and is carrying a postage stamp. In the words of Dermott’s son Mark, Glen Boss is “good with the fillies and mares”. She can win, but my query is whether she has the sprint at the end to beat Septimus, but Weld knows how to win a Melbourne Cup and he looks to have another winning chance here.
23 from 18, 8, 1, 5, 11 & 24
On the rest of the card :
Race 1 – Dancescape has been set for this after running two close seconds to smart males in black type races. She will appreciate racing against her own sex here. Tariks won a trial at Cranbourne against some these and will account for them again down the Flemington straight. Beyond that, keep your money in your pocket, unless you like the colours or the name or know an owner.
1 from 10, 8 & 5
Race 2 – Permission to Land comes out of the Inglis Mile at the Valley which saw a dead heat for first and third. That form is good form, but this is Flemington and she may just get lost on the bigger track although she does get in at the minimum weight. Holey Guacamoley has run well at restricted level in ratings races against horses similarly rated here. She is stepping up in class here but drops in weight also. Keeping Score has returned in excellent order this prep and Rendzina has been racing well against better horses.
8 from 14, 5, 3 & 6
Race 3 – Chantal Sally has the best form line here after running third to second place getter in the Cranbourne Cup, Barbaricus. Forget the Geelong Cup run, she is right up to this. Philosophe has not won first up, but is by Zabeel, has the blinkers first up, so will improve and has won at HQ
6 from 8, 2, 5, 15 & 13
Race 4 – Illuminates ran 7th to Hot Danish, winner on Saturday, in the G2 Shorts and will be running on late here. Jacqueline Rouge is a gutsy mare and will be right in it at the end if there is any sort of leader bias. She has been freshened for the drop back to 1400 metres after running fourth behind Tuesday Joy in the Stutt and has a good record at this distance. Jewelled Gate has good 2ndup form and is coming off consecutive wins in Sydney. She is yet to finish worse than 5th so include her in all your multiples. Neroli has similar stats and I have the same opinion ofher.
12 from 6, 1, 5, 10& 11
Race 5 – Aichi was scratched from the G2 Salinger on Saturday to take on his own age group in this race. He won the G3 Danehill and was second in the G3 Up & Coming and G2 Caulfield Sprint on his way to this, is yet to miss finishing in the top two at his six starts and looks the stand out. He should quinella this with Exceedingly Good, who he beat in the Danehill but will have improved and is back to his own age group.
Hips Don’t Lie is 2 from 2 at HQ and the 6 week break may have been good for her. Penny Banger looks to have returned in good order and Smerdon is due a winner. On that form line, Al’s best Mate has to be thereabouts. Mythical Spirit is stepping up from a maiden win, but is in good hands and could figure in the multiples at odds.
2 from 1 & 3, then 4, 5 & 13
Race 6 – Montana Flyer wasn’t up to it at the Valley in the G2 Red Anchor, after winning a G2 in Sydney. She will improve. Romneya was fourth in the Guineas and drops in distance here, which is the only query, although her record at 1400 metres is exceptional. If she handles that, she wins.
Okaylah has been freshened and by all accounts out of Markdel, is flying. Melpomene is up in class but is a filly on the up and knows how to win, she will be in it at the end. Marveen comes out of the Red anchor and will be thereabouts.
3 from 2, 4, 7 & 1
Race 8 – Pacino drops a kilo from his second at the Heath last start, at excellent odds in the G3 Coongy. Baughurst, the winner of that race, has gone on and strengthened that form line. Electromotive is in winning form, albeit at country tracks, but is a Flemington winner also.
Jabal Tarik is back in distance and gets the blinkers on again which could make a winning difference. Annenkov has the form line through the Coongy and notched up a win over Barbaricus a couple back, which is another good form line.
16 from 5, 14, 8, 7 & 12
Race 9 – In The Shadows was impressive when second to Jeuneyman and improves at the weights here relative to that horse. Captain Bax will be the value runner here. He will race forward and from barrier 20 will get the outside rail. Rightfully Yours is in winning form and has been freshened for this. Big Production has an excellent record at 1200 metres.
6 from 1, 3, 11, 8 & 10
Race 10 – The bet of the day and the short leg in the quaddie awaits. Daintree Duke is a superstar in the making. Five wins from six starts says it all, and ignore the margins in the last two, he was hard held to the line. Chairmanoftheboard drops in class after coming off fifth in a G3 behind Lucky Secret and has won a 0-89 rated race at the Valley. Zyzxx rises in weight but will be brought into this if the track is wet.
4 from 1, 3, 6, 9, 11 & 2
Good punting!
|