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14 November 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting
Bails Bumbles Badly Xenophobia Leads Stewards to Question Wrong Man
Steve Moran on TVN’s Racing Review summed up the quizzing of Aiden O’Brien by stewards after the Melbourne Cup as an embarrassment. He was spot on.
Coolmore brought two horses that pulled up lame and another that was at the wrong end of the handicap. O’Brien is a master trainer, but obviously has not worked out the pathway to Cup success yet. Weld and Cumani should share a few secrets with him.
A pacemaker is a horse that runs to put on a solid tempo with little chance of victory itself (we needed one of these types in the Cox Plate, but that’s another story). In Europe Coolmore and Godolphin have justified this in the past by arguing the best horse wins with a true and even speed throughout (they are probably right).
However, these horses have generally been free running handicappers running in out-of-their-depth WFA events. Everyone has known the role of the horse beforehand, and it was an accepted part of racing in that corner of the globe. The days of the pacemaker are probably drawing to a close, but the Melbourne Cup did not prove an example of this ploy.
The Irish stated beforehand they wanted a solid staying tempo to give their horses a chance to out-stay the more brittle Australian-breds. It was a sound plan, the horses on the day simply were not up to executing their part of the bargain. But to argue one or more of the Coolmore team gave up their chance for another is folly. There is no evidence.
At least these horses put themselves into the race. The horse I liked, C’est La Guerre, was given little chance, due to Prebble’s refusal to take advantage of barrier five. Watch the NZ Derby this year (try Youtube), he was on the speed throughout before blitzing them in the straight. He probably wins the race with the same run Shinn gave Viewed.
The confusing ride of the whole race was Nikolic’s handling of Zipping. Sure, Team Williams stated they were going to ride him cold, but he was never put into the race at any stage. I backed him as well, and would have liked some answers.
Watch the replay. I’m not sure the stewards did. I think they had their kangaroo court planned before the race.
DOOMBEN Race 1 – FAST LOVER powered home through the slush on debut. Not sure about the newcomers and will bet with caution.
5 from 4, 6.
Race 2 - KRYPTELON is racing in rare form and should appreciate the longer Eagle Farm straight. With luck could have won her last three.
11 from 10, 13.
Race 3 – D’ELCATRAZ has been leading them easily in weaker grade but looks on an upward spiral. Have really been impressed with Jujulio during his Brisbane career but the gate and weight make things tougher here.
8 from 1, 15.
Race 4 – Very tough sprint handicap. MYAGI was racing in career best form before his last start flop. Has been freshened and I trust him more than many of these.
3 from 1, 2.
Race 5 – ANOTHER TAKEOVER looks the one here, especially if you delete his recent wet track failures. Primeval Demand has only one win to his credit but before the break ran into a couple of smarties. Might surprise fresh.
7 from 17, 8.
Race 6 – DEACON should relish the drop in weight and was a certainty beaten in weaker grade last start. Developing into a really smart horse, might be the last chance to back him on the limit.
9 from 2, 3.
Race 7 – Like the attitude of HEY ELVIS and he meets danger Heart Of The Citi very well at the weights from their January clash. Old form perhaps, but both on an upward curve.
14 from 3, 11.
Race 8 – Fantastic race to end the card. CONGENIAL ran great time at Randwick and can make it a hat trick. Pandemonia first up will get back but with all the speed on will be motoring home late.
9 from 6, 1.
Rogue’s Nap: ANOTHER TAKEOVER
Next best: Deacon.
The Rogue.
7 November 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting
Plucky Pentacity the Smart Play
Brisbane punters have been fronting up in their droves this week to get into the Spring Carnival zone. An estimated 25,000 revelled at Eagle Farm’s Cup day fixture, and although few were on Viewed, all forgot their recessionary woes and the atmosphere was electric. Final day is normally more relaxed and a good punting card awaits at sun-bathed Doomben.
Rogue’s Nap: PENTACITY
Next best: Abirra
Emirates Stakes: ALL SILENT is highly progressive and won cosily last Saturday. Should have won the Epsom before that, in a race where the backmarkers were hugely disadvantaged. A horse like this always needs a slice of luck but the 4/1 looks fair. Dangers include the well drawn Mimi Lebrock, and mudlark Mr Baritone, who already has one big handicap to his name in 2008.
Doomben Race 1 – ADNOCON was excellent second up considering the 1000m – 1600m jump. With that run under his belt he looks the testing material. River Perfume missed the start in that race and keeps on getting home hard.
2 from 8, 4.
Race 2 – ANNALISHA put up a commendable performance last outing when missing the kick. She was bustled up to surge to the lead and only wilted in the dying stages. Not sure she will be a backable proposition in terms of price though. Of the unraced, Fairchild is out of a useful racemare and may be precocious.
1 from 11, 8.
Race 3 – Keen on CROWNING FORCE in this tight staying handicap at the forecast prices. No luck two back (meets On The Up 5kg better) and solid again last time out behind Hard To Catch over the mile.
8 from 2, 3, 4.
Race 4 – PIETRO VANNUCCI has thrived with the sun on his back since moving to Toowoomba and can break his duck at the mile. One For None looks ready for the step up in trip and has not been beaten far by the good horses Tour Guide and Hey Elvis at his last two.
4 from 6, 3, 5.
Race 5 – ABIRRA looks nicely placed resuming here. The Charming Rogue/Burdekin Blues form jumps off the page! Solid first up and distance statistics as well.
8 from 6, 5, 12.
Race 6 – They should go like scalded cats here with She’s In The Guide drawn wide. Preference is for ON THE FRIDGE – she has a great turn of foot when lady luck smiles upon her. Paymore will get the soft run and lurks as a danger.
11 from 6, 3, 4.
Race 7 – Bottom weight PENTACITY flew fresh and has excellent form through Heavenly Glow and Laletta (placed at Flemington yesterday). Big chance to break through against mainly exposed handicappers.
13 from 11, 8, 6.
Race 8 – Top weight DECEPTION BAY flew at the death a fortnight back and is racing in career best form. Former Victorian mare Surety is flying and may prove hardest to hold out.
1 from 5, 4, 3.
The Rogue.
31 October 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting
Pepper the Books to Bolster the Bank
Clear conditions at present in Brisbane so the track should be in perfect nick for Saturday’s Doomben card.
Race 1 – DOONBAH STAR relished the step up in trip at Southport last week and can confirm his progressive profile. Mystical Knight is starting to get his act together and his second placing to the much-touted Chakvetadze makes him the danger. The Beast is lurking if they slip up.
2 from 7, 9.
Race 2 – Guessing with the babies, prepared to speculate on first starter POWERFUL LIGHT at this stage. By champion sprinter Falvelon, he could prove to be an early runner.
11 from 10, 8.
Race 3 – ONALAR was a hard luck tale last Saturday. He was bailed up on the fence after being ridden quietly in midfield. While he probably would not have won, Onalar would have definitely been in the placings behind the good sort Hey Elvis had he got the crucial run at the 200m. Hopefully connections will claim and he has every chance here.
1 from 5, 4.
Race 4 – Hard To Catch always struggles in these races with lumps of weight. He is the one to avoid. BELL ACADEMY won the Grand Prix, defeating the subsequent Derby second, and he can measure up to the older brigade. He will stay further, but this trip looks ideal second up. Jujulio may give the selection most to do, he defied the tempo last start to score and looks rejuvenated in Brisbane.
5 from 6, 3.
Race 5 – MOPPETT will have to come from near last, but with the expected speed on she is a chance at odds. Moppett has been finding the line with gusto recently and can see off Doomben specialist Charvicky, who returned to form last start.
6 from 5, 9.
Race 6 – THORONDO has a decidedly average Doomben record, but it may pay to overlook this as the Pat Duff trained gelding looks primed at his third run from a spell. He showed substantial promise as a three year old before putting in a few ordinary performances last campaign. The master of Deagon may have him back on track.
4 from 5, 1.
Race 7 – Open sprint handicap with a couple of very promising four year olds catching the eye. Heart of the Citi may just have found the 1000m scamper too sharp for him when resuming, and the extra furlong looks ideal. The enigmatic PEPPERWOOD should give him most to do from barrier two. He is a very promising miler who can rattle home first up and with a soft run must be in the mix. The quinella appeals too.
10 from 6, 4.
Race 8 – Nightmare of a staying race to conclude proceedings. I want to be winning coming to the last. The one open to the most improvement is the Tobougg four year old BUGSYTWOSHOES. Jim Byrne takes over in the saddle and his provincial form might stack up against these merry-go-round types.
9 from 6, 7.
Rogue’s Nap: PEPPERWOOD
Next best: Bell Academy
Ante post wager/ Melbourne Cup selection: All winter I wanted to be on C’EST LA GUERRE ante post for the Melbourne Cup, but Team Williams kept stating he would be lightly raced and instead be a cups’ horse next season. They have changed tack, and with a drop of rain this NZer can be a serious threat to the imports on Tuesday. Go to YouTube to watch the NZ Derby from earlier this year. You will see Nom de Jeu and Red Ruler toiling in the ruck as C’est La Guerre races away. If he can reproduce that he is a major player.
Derby selection: Each way ORCA to upset the favourite. 25/1 appeals each way for this improver who probably got to the lead too soon in the fast-run Vase last Saturday. Bred to stay, he should be nicely placed in the first five during the run. Whobegotyou is freakish but they all get beaten and this race might not pan out as well as his last three.
The Rogue.
24 October 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting
Dance Girl Dance to Rock Doomben
Doomben Race 1: Respecting the Portland form, RIVER PERFUME is slowly graduating through the grades and may find her opportunity here. Adnocon may prove the best of these long term but faces a three furlong jump second up that should prove too much.
7 from 2, 6.
Race 2 – ANNALISHA gave boom filly Paprika an almighty scare a fortnight ago and can find the winner’s stall here. The unraced may give her most to do.
7 from 9, 3.
Race 3 – Some unexposed speed merchants on display. Various formlines can be considered, and the second emergency RUN THE COURSE must be a chance if he gets a run. He has the treasured inside draw and his latest performance splitting Magic Promenade and Borsha’s Mark was full of credit.
17 from 6, 2.
Race 4 – REZONE missed an intended outing two weeks ago because of the affected ground and should be fresh and ready for this middle distance encounter. He is more consistent than most of his rivals and may still be improving at the age of six.
3 from 1, 5.
Race 5 – Northern raider ONALAR has a withering finishing burst on him, and if the race pans out for him, can defy top weight. Cajun Moon and Hey Elvis are full of promise and will prove hard to run down, but first up at 1350m raises question marks.
1 from 14, 8.
Race 6 – DANCE GIRL DANCE got the lovely trail through when resuming, and she is drawn to get the identical run here. Hard luck stories from that race On The Fridge and Kryptelon will undoubtedly present themselves again. She’s In The Guide was gutsy when looking beaten last start and has speed to burn but again the sixth furlong may prove her undoing.
2 from 13, 5, 1.
Race 7 – I have run out of patience with Woody ‘N’ Buzz, although he is better suited dropped back in trip to 1200m. Going to speculate on SAVE A BUCK at odds. He was consistently running on in good company last preparation and may give a bold sight fresh. A race to watch for the future.
11 from 4, 1.
Race 8 – I have burnt fingers from Ghetto Blaster’s latest run but back on top of the ground he is drawn to make amends. He has failed at this trip before however, so at the projected prices I am going to side with the freshened SECRET’S UNTOLD. This fellow improved in leaps and bounds last preparation and there may be more to come over the summer months.
3 from 9, 2, 1.
Race 9 – Speaking of fingers’ burnt….here’s DEACON! A costly flop when tried at a middle distance last start, he can return to winning ways back at the mile. One concern is that he has been up for a while now, but he has loads of potential. Kanetoshi King has a fine CV and looks a chance of toppling the toppie. Might take the quinella.
1 from 4, 6, 15.
ROGUE’S NAP: Dance Girl Dance
Next best: Secret’s Untold
Ante post wager: HONOLULU at 20/1 to win the Melbourne Cup. Convincing victory last start at Doncaster got his campaign back on track. Does not have the high profile of his stablemate Septimus but crucially has four kilograms less.
Cox Plate selection: ZIPPING is better than ever at seven and has a sound Valley record. His 2000m form is excellent compared to many of his out-of-form or untried rivals.
Forget he went around in this 2007 edition of the Cox Plate, the walking pace meant only a few ever got into the race. From barrier 5 he should get a nice sit perhaps just worse than midfield and if the wave of pressure comes he may well prove the hardest nut to crack. All respect to the females dominating the market, if they bet each way odds about Samantha Miss I would be interested but they look a bit short now for mine.
The Rogue.
17 October 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting
Big Bold Kelly Tackles Brisbane Bookies
Rogue’s Nap: KELLY
Next best: Main Vein
Ante post wager: Poco Gusto each way at 20/1 to win the VRC Oaks (place bet important if Samantha wins the Cox Plate!)
Rogue’s Caulfield Cup selection: LITTORIO has furnished into a beautiful stayer this preparation and won the Turnbull with ease. Should only be improved, and will need to be as the weights go against him in some cases. He is a different horse now than the perennial place-getter we saw during his classic year.
The two best form references are the Turnbull and last years’ Caulfield Cup, so Master O’Reilly rates the logical danger. Boundless may get an easy lead, while Zagreb is untapped and should be forgiven one poor run.
12 from 3, 14, 17.
Unsettled conditions could again see the Eagle Farm track deteriorate; currently rated a Good 3.
Race 1 – TIM’S IMAGE backs up quickly but ran with great credit last week. Will go close if not claimed by the bounce factor. Malandrina is progressing nicely through the grades and may give Tim most to do. Barclays is not the most reliable of types but his last run was sound n better grade.
7 from 8, 1.
Race 2 – Not crazy about these early 2YO affairs, prepared to speculate on DUEL SHOW from the trials if the odds are reasonable.
3 from 12, 13.
Race 3 – On a line through last Saturday’s impressive winner Portland, GORM THE OLD deserves to be one of the main fancies. Very professional at both outings to date.
6 from 4, 1.
Race 4 – Hard To Catch was more than sound in the Epsom but always struggles in these affairs with weight on his back. No doubt the claim will assist. I fancy the consistent LITTLE STRANGER, he has been knocking on the door of late and gets seven kilograms off the topweight after claims.
6 from 1, 4.
Race 5 – These staying restricted races are impossible. The form reversals make interpreting the vision/weights/class a waste of time in many cases. CROWNING FORCE for me. Check with your betting agency for their minimum betting limits.
1 from 4, 10.
Race 6 – MAIN VEIN has a solid first up record and has five wins from nine at the trip. He was tried over further last preparation but six furlongs looks his go.
4 from 7, 12.
Race 7 – Ex-Sydneysider KELLY may well be the betting option here. Should get a lovely run from gate one, the minimum trip is perfect, and has a fine first up record. He does not find much off the bridle but has speed to burn.
12 from 1, 6.
Race 8 – Prepared to forgive the run of WOODY ‘N’ BUZZ at Doomben. He was forced wide there, and his three year old form over 1200m really stacks up. I would prefer him at that trip but will gamble if the odds are right that he will get the seventh furlong.
1 from 7, 8.
The Rogue
10 October 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting
Good Thing Ghetto The Drawcard Track good at this stage (Thursday) but showers are forecast for Friday and Saturday so things might get interesting!
Race 1 – PORTLAND was given a smokey’s chance on debut but ran like the All Ordinaries. Much better next time at the Gold Coast. Prepared to speculate. I like some of the form around Left Standing but as a rule don’t like horses jumping from 1000m to 1400m, especially into the unknown.
6 from 1, 2.
Race 2 – Will chance the debutante STOPSTART from the trials but difficult to bet with confidence until the prices come out.
10 from 8, 1.
Race 3 – Although DANE BABYLON is bred to be better over ground he has won a trial and is well drawn. Perhaps a small wager.
6 from 13, 8.
Race 4 – REGAL CASTENEA can do no wrong and meets a similar field here. The set weights suit him and he has the gears the others lack.
3 from 6, 8.
Race 5 – It is fair to say this staying test is not a Caulfield Cup lead up. I trust REZONE more than many of these gay deceivers and he just might be ready now. Excellent record at this distance.
2 from 10, 1.
Race 6 – Raffle. I like the lightly raced types low in the handicap. RELEASE ME is jumping out of his skin at present and remains progressive. Really hitting the line with gusto so must be included. Our Magic at the bottom of the weights appeals at odds from barrier one. On The Fridge has not had the luck at her past two and is beautifully drawn.
15 from 17, 18.
Race 7 – Ostensibly an open sprint handicap – apart from the appearance of the name GHETTO BLASTER in the middle of the weights. He is big, strong, excels at the trip and almost ran at Flemington last Saturday. I would have backed him there had he got a start.
8 from 9, 2.
Race 8 – If race six was a raffle this is the lotto. On the Release Me formline REINCARNATION gets the vote. He will not mind if the rain comes either. Fasdehere is respected – few miles on the clock and beat a subsequent Doomben winner last start. Would like to back them both if the odds are right.
6 from 19, 21.
ROGUE’S NAP: GHETTO BLASTER Next best: Release Me Ante post wager: Zipping to win Cox Plate at 15/1. Stunning sectionals last week and The Hussler campaign may be falling apart.
The Rogue.
3 October 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting Deacon to Dish Out a Brisbane Beating
Race 1 – Difficult open handicap to begin proceedings. PAY ME has been a little disappointing lately but can bounce back at odds from gate one. Useful Doomben record and in the right place in the weights.
4 from 7, 5.
Race 2 – LIFEBOAT ran above himself in the Cameron but that shows how well he’s going. The apprentice and the price offered are the two items to ponder here.
2 from 12, 1.
Race 3 – Would have forgiven On The Fridge for her last run but the wide gate is again off-putting. DANCE GIRL DANCE has drawn beautifully, has fine first up form and can defy the 58kg impost.
1 from 8, 6.
Race 4 – Prepared to gamble with KOOTENANNIE at odds here, tried to mow down a speedy squib at Ipswich who has run well in town. This filly should improve again and the 1200m is ideal.
13 from 5, 3.
Race 5 – Good short course race. They will fly along here, and SHE’S IN THE GUIDE has the class to be on the speed early yet kick on straightening. Borsha’s Mark looks the danger but barrier 13 makes his job much harder.
8 from 3, 6.
Race 6 – With even luck DEACON and My Limit should run the quinella. DEACON was outstanding again (against the tempo) last time and is the confident selection.
3 from 7, 9.
Race 7 – MOPPETT rises in grade but was very impressive from back in the pack at the Farm. The form around Albert The Fat is strong. Scenica missed the kick at her first Australian start and her performance was sound.
10 from 4, 2.
Race 8 – DAEDALUS is on his last chance here but showed enough when resuming. If he can find another length or two second up (good record) then he has a chance of off-setting the barrier.
5 from 3, 2.
ROGUE’S NAP: DEACON
Next best: Dance Girl Dance
Ante post wager: Oval Affair to win the 1000 Guineas at 20/1. There is an excellent chance Samantha Miss will not line up, and Oval Affair should run well at Flemington on Saturday.
The Rogue.
19 September 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting
Express Air to Topple Rock
Eagle Farm punters may justifiably have more of an eye on Melbourne and Sydney this week, but a few local winners will always help build the bank. Track predicted to be a Good 3.
Race 1 – FASTNSTRAIGHT may not have quite got home over 2020m last time, but dropping back a furlong should suit him ideally. Two back looked an extremely promising middle distance type.
5 from 7, 8.
Race 2 – SIMPLEST picks himself. Will be short but impossible to oppose. Socialist first up might be the quinella horse.
2 from 5, 3.
Race 3 – REGAL CASTENEA is going to start favourite again but deservedly so. Wide but oh so game two weeks ago.
6 from 9, 10.
Race 4 – Trappy little handicap. Perhaps VICTORY CODE will bob up, although this intermediate trip may throw up a surprise. Little confidence. Slim Pickings was sound first up but has a terrible record at Eagle Farm.
Race 5 – DAEDALUS was an expensive flop last preparation, but previously had shown a fair amount of potential as a three year old. If the odds are ok will chance that the fires within have been rekindled.
4 from 2, 3.
Race 6 – Like this race. Hopefully Zero Rock will go up nice and short, but EXPRESS AIR rocketed home behind him last time and can turn the tables here. The quinella appeals too.
7 from 4, 1.
Race 7 – Fair to say that ON THE FRIDGE is flying. No weight here and doubt the depth of the “black type” fillies form anyway. Difficult to assess her price but hoping she does not come up favourite.
11 from 2, 6.
Race 8 – Difficult finale with many different formlines to consider. COVET GOLD has form around any number of handy types and must be a good chance despite the alley.
3 from 2, 1.
ROGUE’S NAP: EXPRESS AIR
Next best: On The Fridge
Ante post wager: Guillotine @ 16/1 to win the Caulfield Cup. 50kgs, qualified, half to Efficient. Had the gun trail last week but still found the line with gusto, barging others out of the way in the process. Back in town.
The Rogue.
12 September 2008 The Rogue - Brisbane Metro Meeting
Blaster is Back
The reappearance of Ghetto Blaster is the highlight of Saturday’s competitive Eagle Farm card. This solid sprinter has been off the scene since before Christmas, and has an excellent profile and the build to carry weight.
Track currently rated dead for Saturday’s Eagle Farm card.
Race 1 – A difficult time of year for three year olds against older horses but SNIPPET STREET has high speed from the gates, and can be forgiven his odds on failure last time. Not that I would step into red figures here, though. Each way odds please.
9 from 10, 8.
Race 2 – TIMECALL rattles home to win at Caloundra and with only two runs to his name has more to offer. Baby Rock is out of a Sadler’s Wells mare so should really benefit from the step to 1500m, although debut time was slow.
3 from 9, 2.
Race 3 – Good race. DEACON brained his opponents last time and is full of promise. Also has form at the mile that Regal Castenea cannot boast, but Regal was tough considering the run last week. Bradfield had no hope given the tempo in that same race.
4 from 3, 7.
Race 4 – MY LIMIT has more ability than any other here but these back-markers break your heart! I prefer him at a mile but on his Derby run should just get this trip. Be wary of a really short price, 5/2 is as short as I would take.
10 from 5, 13.
Race 5 – SECRETS UNTOLD is flying at present and must be in the finish again. He meets Striking Victory slightly better at the weights here and that may be enough. Eskimo Dan seemed to have some problems last campaign but should be running on well now he gets to a better trip.
3 from 1, 4.
Race 6 – FRIENDLY EMBRACE may have had the dream run last time, but this sprinter is a real fighter and much improved over the past twelve months. The draw has not been so kind this time, but once again you will get an honest run for your money.
4 from 2, 6.
Race 7 – GHETTO BLASTER has not been seen for many months. A class act when right, he excels fresh and at Eagle Farm. The rails draw is a plus and he can lump weight.
Pride of Power has run into some smarties lately and will relish dropping back in trip. Count Henry was wide last Saturday and still kicked clear at the distance. He is in fine fettle.
1 from 10, 4.
Race 8 – Complete raffle. CENTINELLE produced a big finish a fortnight ago and this track/trip may be ideal as long as they run along early. Knockout chance at odds.
16 from 4, 14.
ROGUE’S NAP: Ghetto Blaster Next best: Deacon
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