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21 November 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
All Rounder Delivers Djokovic Dollars
Last week was all about redemption and we achieved just that after tipping you into Novak Djokovic to win the ATP Masters Cup, three days before he lifted the trophy.
Drifting out to $4.00 after losing his final round robin match, the world number three won a hard-fought semi-final and then crushed a certain dodgy Russian, Nikolay Davydenko, in the final. The Serb looks well on track to defend his Australian Open title. We digress.
Want to know the biggest sporting news in Argentina this week? Most would guess the national soccer side’s win over Scotland in Diego ‘Who ate all the Pies’ Maradona’s first game in charge as coach. But no, the biggest news has been Argentina taking on Spain in this weekend’s Davis Cup Final.
The Argentina has never won the ultimate team prize in tennis, finishing as runners-up in 1981 and 2006. As hosts, their chances will never be better than this year with All Rounders’ favourite, and world number one (in that order), Rafa Nadel withdrawing due to injury. Such was the mere presence of Nadal that the home side chose to play the final on carpet and indoors, the first time in history that Argentina has ever played a home tie on anything else but a claycourt. That’s what Nadal does – he makes you change history.
Three-quarters of the 2006 Argentine team, lead by veteran David Nalbandian, are back seeking to go one better but they are strengthened considerably by the inclusion of 20 year-old whiz kid Juan Martin del Potro who is fresh from playing in the Masters Cup.
Spain on other hand will be lead by an out of sorts David Ferrer, supported by two capable, but enigmatic left-handers Felianco Lopez and Fernando Verdasco. Ferrer is on the All-Rounder’s black list after losing 6-0, 6-1 to a far lesser player earlier this year, a fair effort (or lack of)) given he was in the top five at the time.
Form, personal and home court advantage – they haven’t been beaten in a Davis Cup tie at home since 1998 – all point to a decisive victory for Argentina ($1.22). That won’t pay the bills so for look for more value in the individual rubbers.
Despite the draw still being unknown, back Nalbandian to win in singles on day one – he’ll be at his best for the biggest match of his life – and back Argentina to win the doubles rubber on the middle day.
Spain’s best chance of a point looks to be on the opening day at the expense of Del Potro. The 20-year-old has enjoyed a breakout season but won only one of three matches in Shanghai last week, is reportedly carrying an injury and must be tiring after a marathon season. He’s likely to meet either Lopez or Verdasco on day one and both will be a chance at odds – particularly Lopez who beat Del Potro in their only meeting this year.
Elsewhere we like an Australian double in the rugby codes – the Kangaroos to win the League World Cup and the Wallabies to defeat France.
Under new coach Robbie Deans, the Wallabies look to have returned to some form of old on their spring tour with wins over Italy and England last weekend at fortress Twickenham. Finally the forwards have rediscovered some grunt as for a while there we could have pushed the scrum over. It’s a tough assignment at the Stade de France Stadium against a near-full strength French side, but look for the Wallabies ($1.80) to continue their winning ways.
In the Rugby League World Cup Final – for a sport essentially played seriously by three nations, yet we still require a World cup – Australia should dominate the Kiwis The Kangaroos have won their last eight encounters while NZ has beaten the hosts just twice in the last ten years – that’s a fair domination. Australia defeated the Kiwis by 24 points in a pool game less than a month ago, so take them at a -18.5pt line ($1.90) for some value in a match which finally finishes this event known in name only as a World Cup.
Suggested Bets:
$50 on Argentina/Wallabies/Kangaroos -18.5pts @ $4.17
Davis Cup Bets: David Nalbandian to Win on Day 1 Argentina to win the Doubles Lopez/Verdasco to defeat del Potro on Day 1
14 November 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
Bank Balance Blown Last week perhaps wasn’t our finest hour, but we’ll blame it on Spring Carnival fatigue impairing our judgement. And a certain team from across the Tasman. Sydney’s capitulation against New Zealand’s sorry excuse for a soccer team last week hurt us – and our bank balances – almost as much as when the Jamaican women dropped the baton in the final of the 4x100m in Beijing. Not quite though. Despite Wellington Phoenix’s win, our firm stance on this New Zealand ‘pub team’ remains... to say we despise them is probably an understatement. After a disappointing week it’s back to basics and one of our specialities – tennis. The final ATP event of the season is this week’s Masters Cup for the eight best performed players on tour this year. It’s only the best of the best playing in Shanghai so there are no dodgy qualifiers and wildcards to upset our form analysis, although a certain shifty Russian by the name of Nikolay Davydenko is in the field... We Digress. Sadly our good friend Rafa Nadel withdrew from the tournament due to injury with the year-end number one ranking safely in his pocket. The man he replaced as number one, Roger Federer, would be the next logical pick, but, suffering from sickness and a bad back; his form has been patchy at best. He lost to Giles Simon in the opening match of the round-robin tournament and then battled past late replacement Radek Stepanek in a tight two-setter. Stepanek almost won the first set despite playing with borrowed racquets, borrowed socks and, incredibly, without his contact lenses, suggesting that Fed is a little below par. If we had to play without contact lenses we’d struggle to hit the ball let alone almost beat the Fed-Ex. The Swiss master says he’ll need a miracle to make the semis but a win over Andy Murray will see him through so don’t write him off. Murray looms as the man to beat in the tournament, having been in scintillating form since making his maiden grand slam final at the US Open. Still, we think he could be a tad battle weary having played so many matches since August so we think Serb Novak Djokovic is the value. Djokovic has already clinched a semi-final spot with two impressive wins over Davydenko and rising Argentine star Juan Martin del Potro and has earmarked this tournament as a key plank in his Australian Open title defence. The world number three may have lost his last two clashes with Murray – both close contests – but he still leads the Scot 4-2 head-to-head so we’d back him to prevail in any possible finals match-up. Djokovic ($3.50) looms as the fresh player on the scene at a tournament which often becomes a survival of the fittest at the end of long year, so we think he can collect the winners’ cheque and trophy.
In the world game, we’re steering clear of the A-League after last week, instead analysing soccer in its purest form – the EPL. Arsenal look well placed to continue on their winning ways this weekend. After defeating Manchester United last week, the Gunners will be brimming with confidence when they take on Aston Villa this weekend. Villa seems to have hit a speed hump of sorts, conceding their last two games to lesser fancied opposition teams. Arsenal ($1.50) meanwhile looks to be coming into a rich vein of form if their win last week is anything to go by. At home, they should simply be too strong for Aston Villa. Despite the away fixture, Liverpool looms as an extremely tough opponent for Bolton this weekend. Liverpool ($1.60) has played away six times this season, coming away with four wins, a draw and only one loss. They have also won five of their last six and now sit equal on points with ladder leaders Chelsea. If they were at home, they would be at a much shorter quote, but their away form shows they are more than comfortable on the road. We envisage them having the edge against Bolton, who has only won two of six at home this season. If you weren’t aware, the Rugby League World Cup is drawing to its closing stages – don’t worry, we only just realised – with all pool matches apparently complete. New Zealand ($1.50) takes on England for a spot in the final in what should be one of the few competitive matches of the tournament. They faced each other less than a week ago, with New Zealand coming out on top 36-24. The score line flattered the Poms as the win was quite comprehensive and we see no reason why the tables will be turned this time. Suggested Bets: $50 on Novak Djokovic to win the ATP Masters Cup in Shanghai @ $3.50 $50 on Arsenal/ Liverpool/ New Zealand @ $3.60
7 November 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
Sliding into Stakes
It’s been a big week and the All Rounder is almost exhausted. Still, if you’ve been following our racing tips, then you should have enjoyed a successful carnival. Despite our fatigue we’re lifting to find our loyal readers a win in the two remaining features.
There’s been some big upsets in the Cups and the Victoria Derby this year and history suggests the trend could continue in the Emirates Stakes (1600m). Three of the last four winners of the race have saluted at odds better than 25-1 – including Sky Cuddle at 50-1 in 2004 and Tears I Cry at 100-1 this year. Be wary of the favourites.
Despite this, we like Sea Battle, one of the fancied runners, to salute the post first. The horse was an impressive winner of the Waterford Crystal Mile on Cox Plate day and finished fourth in the Toorak Handicap two starts back. The horse is also unbeaten in three starts at Flemington. The combination of jockey Michael Rodd and trainer Mark Kavanagh should hopefully compensate for the wide draw.
Most importantly, the horse is fifth up and looks to have been set for the race. Be wary of runners on Saturday – in this race and all others – who are having one final run this campaign, often after their major spring target. They are often are found out as being in need of a spell – see Weekend Hussler in this race last year.
The main dangers loom as Sydneysiders Bank Robber and All Silent, who both ran well behind subsequent Mackinnon Stakes winner Theseo in the Epsom Handicap. Horses from Sydney have enjoyed a good spring and these two will be right in the mix.
The race’s history demands you consider a roughie. We like Mentality at around the $15 mark. Disregard his last start flop in the Epsom – he doesn’t handle wet ground as he showed in this year’s Doncaster Handicap. He’s one of Australia’s premier mile runners with four wins a second and a third from eight attempts at 1600m. He beat Theseo over a mile two starts back and has been freshened for this race.
Sea Battle 5 from 7, 10, 1 & 15
The newly named Patinack Farm Classic – clearly Nathan Tinkler had previous sponsors The Age covered when it came to sponsoring this race – marks the return of the much loved sprinter Apache Cat.
The horse hasn’t been beaten since last year’s Makybe Diva Stakes and has won seven of his last eight starts. He’s had four wins and a third at 1200m and five wins and two third placings from eight first-up runs. The Cat should be far too classy for this rather average bunch of group sprinters, which is sadly missing Takeover Target due to injury.
Elsewhere this weekend, three soccer games take our eye: two in the EPL and one closer to home in the A League.
Aston Villa tackles Middlesbrough in what shapes as a tantalising contest. Aston Villa ($1.61) is sitting fifth on the table after some solid recent form. Middlesbrough also sits in the top half of the table, albeit with only four wins from 11 matches. In what might shape as an even match on paper, the sealer is in Aston Villa’s home ground advantage. They are yet to lose a game at home this year, whilst Middlesbrough’s away record has been abysmal, recording three losses from just five matches. These facts point to one thing, and one thing only, an Aston Villa victory.
Still in the EPL, Chelsea looks extremely well placed against Blackburn this weekend. Back in England after some shaky form in Rome, where they were humbled by Roma 3-1 in their Champions League fixture, the Blues will be looking for redemption against a Blackburn outfit that has only recorded one win in its past six matches. To add to the trepidation in the Blackburn camp, Chelsea ($1.45) has slotted home 14 goals in their five away matches this season, whilst only allowing a single goal to penetrate thier own defence.
In the A league this weekend, Sydney FC ($1.50) should prove too strong for Wellington Phoenix FC. We’ve previously expressed our feelings on the existence of a NZ ‘pub team’ in the A-League, and our position hasn’t changed... the Wellington Phoenix add very little to competition. In fact, they detract from it. In any case, they will record yet another loss against a Sydney outfit that is coming into some form after a recent 2-0 away win against ladder leaders Melbourne.
Suggested Bet: $50 on Sea Battle to win @ $5.50 $25 E-W on Mentality @ $16 & $4.75 $50 on Apache Cat to win @ $1.80 $50 on Aston Villa/ Chelsea/ Sydney FC @ $3.50
31 October 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
Derby Day Dedication
The All Rounder is taking a step back form the world sport scene this weekend to focus solely on the Spring Carnival’s marquee day – Victoria Derby Day. With the roses in full bloom at fabulous Flemington, a bumper card of 10 Group races, including four Group One’s, awaits in what should be a sensational day of racing. But before we dive into our racing preview....
If you look at the ‘Mailman’s Ladder’ after two legs of the Spring Carnival, you’ll notice the All Rounder sits comfortably in second place. Some might see this as unexpected given the variety of sports we cover, but regardless, the All Rounder is now bursting with punting confidence, and so we feel it our duty to make horse racing our number one priority this week. We digress...
The AAMI Victoria Derby will be an opportunity for one of Australia’s brightest racing prospects to showcase his immense talent. Whobegotyou has emerged onto the scene this spring, storming away with the Caulfield Guineas and then scoring comfortably in the AAMI Vase. Only one horse has won the Guineas-Vase-Derby treble – Helenus in 2002 – but, guided by the in-form pair of Mark Kavanagh and Michael Rodd, we think that this impressive chestnut gelding can be the second.
The race doesn’t shape as the strongest Derby field in recent years, but what the others runners may lack, Whobegotyou definitely makes up for. He is clearly the one to beat, with his short quote of $1.55 reinforcing this. Bookmaker Alan Eskander has declared it a “wipe-out” if ‘Whobe’ salutes after taking some big bets. We can’t envisage anything different; with Eskander and his colleagues likely to be licking thier wounds after this three-year-old superstar puts some money back in the punters’ pockets.
If you’re not one for betting on odds-on favourites, consider a place bet on Larry’s Never Late. Currently showing $2.70 to run in the top three, this horse has been terribly unlucky in recent starts but still managed to finish fourth last start in the AAMI Norman Robinson. With a change of fortune, he will be right in the finish.
1 from 9, 8, 4 & 13
The Coolmore Stud Stakes shapes as a great race. Sydney’s new superstar galloper, Northern Meteor, has made the trip south in the hope of getting one back for the Sydneysiders. Whilst it may be hard to line up his form against some of the locals, two track records in as many starts speaks for itself, with a six week let up by trainer Gai Waterhouse seeming to have done the trick. This three-year-old colt has looked ultra-impressive, winning these last two starts by a combined margin of nine lengths, leading us to believe that perhaps Sydney’s biggest spruiker, Gai Waterhouse, might have a point when she no doubt declares Northern Meteor a certainty this Saturday. We won’t go that far, but he will be very hard to beat.
Outside of Northern Meteor, Von Costa De Hero must be given thought. He’s been freshened for this race and is one from one at Flemington. Australia’s premier jockey Damien Oliver has been engaged to take the ride, and he should afford his mount every chance from barrier six.
6 from 1, 3, 7 & 2
In the Mackinnon Stakes, we think the forgotten horse of the spring, Littorio, can return to form and spruik his credentials as the best local chance in the Melbourne Cup. He’s one of the All Rounders’ favourites and it’s worth remembering the horse finished fifth in the Caulfield Cup, beaten just over two lengths, while his previous run was his win in the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m at Flemington. He might just be warming up for the two miles on Tuesday, but back at the wide open expanses of Flemington; we think he can mow them down in the final 200m to produce a Cup-trial on par with subsequent Melbourne Cup winner Rogan Josh in 1999.
Of the rest, Princess Coup disappointed last week but, if the race is run at any sort of pace – the All Rounder could almost have kept up with them for much of last week’s Cox Plate – then she’ll be thereabouts after finishing second in the race last year. Red Ruler’s run in the Caulfield Cup was also very good, while Sirmione won this race at 100-1 last year so he must be respected, despite his atrocious form, back on his favourite track.
7 from 12, 8, 1, 6
Another Bart Cummings horse, Mimi Lebrock, looks poised to deliver the Cups King his record-breaking 250th Group One success in the Myer Classic. She was an impressive winner last start at Caulfield, won over 1400m at Flemington three starts back and this is clearly the race the great man has set her for. Disregard her run on Turnbull Stakes day – she was boxed in on the fence with nowhere to go. Barrier 16 is a concern, but we think that Michael Rodd, no doubt fresh from winning the Derby, can find a nice position one off the rail and have her ready to pounce in the straight.
Of the rest look out for Absolut Glam, Bellini Rose and Forensics – all of whom come out of the Blazer Stakes on Turnbull Stakes day. Tan Tat de Lago also loves the Flemington and has two wins from four starts at the distance, so keep her safe, particularly if we get any sort of rain before Saturday as she loves a wet track.
7 from 3, 8, 1, 9
Suggested Bets:
$50 on Whobegotyou to win @ $1.55 $50 on Larry’s Never Late to place @$2.70 $50 on Northern Meteor to win @ $1.90 $50 on Littorio in win @ $5.00 $25 on Mimi Lebrock e-w @ $7 & $2.50
24 October 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
Cox Crock
The W.S. Cox Plate is usually the best race in Australia. Not this year. Without stars Weekend Hussler, Tuesday Joy, Light Fantastic and Pompeii Ruler, a race that promised so much prior to the spring, is now lacking in quality.
Another absent horse is Whobegotyou. Mark Kavanagh is gem of a trainer but we can’t understand the colt’s absence from the big one, given he’ll race over the same distance just 85mins before the Cox Plate. Kavanagh can talk about wanting to ‘protect’ the horse for the rest of its career, but the Derby – which the horse will run in next Saturday – has ruined more than a few careers. In a field lacking depth, three-year olds have been known the pinch the odd Cox Plate – just ask Graham Rogerson who did so with Savabeel in 2004. We digress.
Princess Coup looks the standout this year. She’s a four-time Group One placegetter in Australia and two of those finishes – last year’s Mackinnon Stakes and this year’s Australia Cup – were over 2000m. Her last start win in the Kelt Capital was enormous and the NZ form held up last weekend when the placegetters from that race ran second and sixth in the Caulfield Cup.
She may not have raced at the Valley before but trainer Mark Walker took her for two gallops at the track in the Autumn – that’s how long he’s been targeting the race for his five-year old mare. That’s good enough for us. Hopefully jockey Opie Bosson can work out the difference between the drug-testers and his fellow jockeys after he allegedly had a little trouble doing so earlier this month in NZ.
The main danger looms as Zipping – another horse who’s been specifically aimed at this race, his ‘grand final’, according to owner Lloyd Williams. After finishing a luckless eighth last year, this is a chance break his Group One duck. The horse has two wins from four starts at the track and it’s worth remembering that he finished only 4.4lengths behind Weekend Hussler in the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) earlier this year. He’s got plenty of speed and he’ll be flying late.
Look for a return to form of Maldivian – he loves the Valley, having enjoyed two wins and a second from his four starts there. It’s also a return to the home of perhaps his greatest win, the JRA Cup, over the Cox Plate distance, on Grand Final eve last year. With blinkers on for the first time, we expect the front-running six-year old to return to form and be in the finish.
What to make of Samantha Miss? She looks a star but history is against her. The great Surround in 1976 is the only 3yo filly to win the race. Eleven have tried since then but only Slight Chance (3rd in 1992) has finished closer than fifth. For us there are too many question marks – first run in Melbourne, untried at the distance and, most importantly, queries on the opposition she’s been beating in Sydney. We think she might fall just short but she might make a fool of us. Hopefully ‘Group One’ Glen Boss will still have all four limbs in the saddle – he’s lost so much weight that it might just have been easier to chop one of them off.
Of others, Sirmione at his best would be right in this but he’s never placed at the Valley in four starts; Alamosa is only running because its owners overruled the trainer and Master O’Reilly could be thereabouts in a fast-run race.
Aside from our racing, the world game is well and truly heating up across various leagues.
We toyed with the idea of previewing the first International Rules game, but came to the conclusion that it really is a case of hit and miss with so many unknowns. On one hand, you have the professional Aussie boys who have barely touched the round ball, and on the other, a bunch of amateurs from Ireland who haven't had the round ball out of their hands since child birth. To the soccer...
The EPL power houses are really beginning to show their true colours as the season enters round nine. Manchester United will be very hard to beat against lowly placed Everton this weekend. Despite the away fixture, Man U ($1.55) are well and truly on the up after a 4-0 demolition of West Bromwich Albion last weekend. If they bring that form, they will win.
United’s cross city rivals, Manchester City ($1.40), also look a likely winner this weekend. They’ve experienced some early-season ups and downs but they’re coming up against a Stoke City outfit who has conceded the second most goals in the league. If the City strikers come out to play, they should score a nice away win.
In the most anticipated game thus far this season, Chelsea takes on Liverpool in the top of the table clash. Both teams have been in scintillating form and it would be easy to mount a case for either team this weekend. However, the clincher for us is in the home ground advantage for Chelsea ($1.82), who along with a very loyal army of fans, are likely to give Liverpool a very hostile reception that will help immensely in securing the win.
Suggested Bets: $50 on Princess Coup to WIN @ $3.80 $25 on Zipping E-W @ $8 & $2.55 Manchester United/Manchester City/Chelsea @ $3.95
17 October 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
Rounder Redeemed After Ripping Run
Caulfield wraps up its leg of the Spring Racing Carnival this Saturday with the blue riband BMW Caulfield Cup. Maldivian might be seeking redemption after last year’s debacle, but it seems the All Rounder is one step ahead, redeeming some past losses with two solid wins last weekend.
We’re not usually one for self-promotion but our successes last week mean we’ll make an exception. Our Bathurst tip, Whincup and Lowndes, may have started from sixth on the grid but they duly saluted to win their third consecutive Bathurst crown. If you thought the champagne was flowing post-race at Mount Panorama then just think how thirsty the All Rounder was after riding every corner with the duo for more than six hours. Time Thief also ran a game second to up-and-coming superstar Whobegotyou in the Caulfield Guineas. We digress.
This year’s Caulfield Cup is a wide open affair although the build-up to the big race has been all about one horse – Weekend Hussler. The Hussler was right on track and a raging favourite for the Caulfield classic until his last start eighth in the Turnbull Stakes. The gelding enjoyed little luck after drawing a wide gate so the race proved an inconclusive picture of whether he’ll stay the Cup distance of 2400m. We think the champ could come up just short under the top weight of 57kg on Saturday but it wouldn’t surprise us if we were wrong. Any horse who can win the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) and then the Caulfield Cup – over exactly twice the distance – in a calendar year deserves their champion status.
Our tip for the race is the Hussler’s last start-conqueror in Littorio. The four-year old may have won just one race, a Sale maiden, before his win in the Turnbull Stakes, but he ran 3rd in both the VRC and the AJC Derbies last season, proving his liking for the Cup distance. Indeed these defeats may prove a blessing in disguise as Littorio carries 1.5kg less than AJC Derby winner Nom de Jeu on Saturday.
Historically the Nigel Blackiston trained gelding has plenty going for it. Four-year olds have won eight out of the last twelve Caulfield Cups and the age group has been the most successful of all ages in the history of the race. Sky Heights, Northerly and Elvstroem have all won the Cup in the last decade after taking out the Turnbull at their previous start. While his reputation may not yet rival the horse they called ‘Elvis’, Littorio has been placed in all three of his lead-up races, just as Elvstroem was in the same three races en route to victory in 2004.
Most importantly the horse is in winning form, ridden by a former winner of the race in Steven King and will run the trip. That’s good enough for us. Others to consider include the Danny O’Brien trained duo Douro Valley and last year’s winner Master O’Reilly who returned to form last start. The trainer can’t split them so Douro Valley looks better value given he meets his stablemate 4kg better off for last year. Master O’Reilly is also weighted right up to his best in attempting to become the first horse since the great Rising Fast in 1954-55 to win two straight cups. Others for the multiples are the lightweight Zagreb, last year’s hard-luck story Maldivian and NZ mare Boundless who has a touch of the 2001 winner Ethereal about her.
In world football, the EPL is back to its regular fixture this weekend, with two games catching our eye.
Arsenal ($1.40) takes on Everton at home in what should prove a very winnable match for the Gunners. Despite sitting comfortably at fourth on the table, Arsenal’s recent form has been somewhat shaky, but we still envisage them accounting comfortably for Everton. Arsenal’s most powerful weapon, its offence, will be pitted against a team that has conceded 15 goals in just seven matches, surely putting the writing on the wall for a Gunners victory.
Ladder leaders Chelsea ($1.57) take on 12th placed Middlesbrough away this weekend. Chelsea have stamped themselves as the competition’s measuring stick in the opening seven games, conceding just three goals in that time, and are also yet to record a loss. Despite some encouraging recent form from Middlesbrough, we can’t go past an imposing Chelsea outfit.
Closer to home, the Newcastle Jets host Melbourne Victory this weekend. The Victory ($2.05) sit a game clear on top of the premiership table, with reigning premiers the Jets languishing in third last. If that doesn’t mount a compelling case, we just need to look back to the last time these two teams played when the Victory demolished the Jets 5-0. Whilst we’re not predicting a similar score line, we think the Victory can again get the job done.
Suggested bets: $50 on Littorio to win at $6 $50 on Arsenal/ Chelsea/ Melbourne Victory at $4.50
10 October 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
Best of Bathurst & Guineas Gold
To say the NRL Grand Final didn’t pan out quite as we expected is an understatement, but if you can find us one person who predicted the 40-0 annihilation, we will happily bow down and salute them. What’s in the past will stay in the past as we look to the future, with Mt. Panorama firmly in our sights. As a man much wiser than us once said, ‘the fool who dwells on the past will unknowingly let any opportunities in the future pass right on by’. As with everything, we can apply this to a betting framework – the NRL Grand Final is in the past, but there is no time to dwell. Mt Panorama awaits. Redemption starts now. We digress.
It’s all systems go at Mt. Panorama this weekend as we gear up to the Bathurst 1000 on Sunday. With competition for this year’s V8 Supercar title fierce, the competition heavyweights will be looking to make an impression this weekend. Garth Tander, Mark Winterbottom and Jamie Whincup sit neck and neck at the top of the standings, with that trio and their respective racing partners also dominating the betting for this weekend’s race. As per their racing teams throughout the season, Tander will pair with Mark Skaife, Winterbottom with Steve Richards and Whincup with Craig Lowndes. A win from any one of these pairings would not surprise, but we are leaning to the combination of Whincup and Lowndes ($3.50).
The Triple Eight Racing duo is aiming for a record-breaking three-peat at the famous circuit after conquering the mountain the past two years. These results clearly point to the fact that this pair is more than comfortable racing with each other, an aspect of this great race that can bring so many teams made up of brilliant drivers unstuck. Like the old saying goes, a champion team will always account for a team of champions, with Whincup and Lowndes proving they form a champion paring as evidenced on this same day in both 2006 and 2007.
To cement our feelings, car 888 was fastest in Thursday’s practice sessions, clocking a time two tenths of a second faster than anyone else on the track. If anyone thought they might stop at back-to-back titles, they were wrong, with this dynamic duo set to make history this coming Sunday.
With the Spring Carnival really heating up, and many other sports entering the off-season, we thought this might be a good time for the All Rounder to venture out onto the racetrack and provide you with one horse racing tip each week. Sure our credentials in tipping a winner might not stack up against the likes of the Mailman, but we still think we can find you a winner here and there.
This week the Caulfield Guineas is the headline act in a great day of racing. Last year it was the Hussler who burst onto the scene with an emphatic Guineas win, and whilst we might not have such a standout three-year-old this year, we can expect some good things from the horses making up this capacity field in the years to come.
In a nutshell, we like the look of Time Thief. After careful analysis of the race, this $2 million Darley buy shapes as a great each-way bet. He has drawn well in barrier nine and should have every chance if jockey Dwayne Dunn can orchestrate a nice run. At $10 to win and $3.25 to run a place, he should be right in the finish. Suggested Bets:
$50 on Car888 (Lowndes/Whincup) @ $3.50 $25 each way on Time Thief in the Caulfield Guineas @ $10 and $3.25
3 October 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports Storm to Cronk It Up
Whilst AFL headquarters may be swinging into holiday mode after a tantalising Grand Final last week, there is no rest for the All Rounder, with plenty of money making opportunities on offer this weekend. Now before we delve into this week’s bets, we must make mention of last Saturday’s much anticipated climax to the AFL season. Sure we may have predicted a slightly different result, much like the rest of Australia, but our man Joel Corey easily accounted for Jordan Lewis in the disposal count, so we got one back there with a healthy injection of funds. We digress.
The NRL Grand Final takes place this Sunday between the Melbourne Storm and Manly Sea Eagles. In a rematch of last year’s final, the game promises to be an absolute cracker, with both teams greatly deserving of their spot in the big one.
Manly will be looking to avenge last year’s Grand Final humiliation at the hands of the Storm, where they seemed overawed on the game’s biggest stage. A team that had looked so strong all year, they were an absolute shemozzle on Grand Final day 2007 in what was a very one-sided affair. Whilst we’re expecting a much tighter contest this time round, we think the Storm can go back-to-back ($2.10).
Whilst their path to the Grand Final may have panned out a little differently than first thought, the Storm roared back into form last week when they obliterated the Cronulla Sharks. It was an ominous warning that they were back to their best, and that they were not a spent force without their captain and regular hooker Cameron Smith.
In recent history between the two sides, the Storm holds a commanding ascendancy. They have won four of the past five encounters, including both of their matches in this year’s regular home and away season. In round five the Storm won by 22 points, and then by 6 points on Manly’s home turf just a few weeks ago in round 22. Whether the teams will admit it or not, this gives the Storm a decisive edge in knowing that they are capable of defeating Manly. The Sea Eagles meanwhile are bound to have a few doubts over just how they can overcome the Storm.
The match looks set to go right down to the wire, with the facts outlined above giving the Storm a slight edge that should be enough to see them claim their third premiership.
Like last week in the AFL, we have a few suggestions for who will be best on ground in Sunday’s match. After going so close last week with Gary Ablett Jnr. in a game where Luke Hodge’s ‘dodgy’ ribs were not so dodgy after all, we fancy ourselves to pick the Clive Churchill medallist this week.
Storm halfback Cooper Cronk ($7) will be right amongst the action come Sunday. Whilst Cronk’s offensive game is impressive, with an average of 39 running metres a game and 37 try assists this year, it is his defensive prowess that puts him in the league’s elite, making an astonishing 89.4% of his tackles. If the Storm is to win, he will be a major player and an obvious candidate for best on ground.
Manly’s answer to Cronk is captain Matt Orford ($7). The Sea Eagles’ skipper has been pivotal to their success all season, with his ability to direct and set-up his team second to none. That said he has been on the end of some harsh criticism over his career, with Sunday his best chance yet to silence these critics and stamp himself as a worthy captain and damaging halfback.
Storm fullback Billy Slater ($8) is the last of our Clive Churchill medal fancies. Slater has a knack for stepping up in big games, launching countless Storm attacks from his post at fullback when the pressure is on. Slater averages 134 metres a game and is a genius at breaking the opposition’s defensive line. He could just be the game-breaker on Sunday and in doing so is more than capable of claiming best on ground honours.
Suggested bet: $50 on Melbourne Storm to win @ $2.10
Clive Churchill Medal Fancies: Cooper Cronk @ $7 Matt Orford @ $7 Billy Slater @ $8
26 September 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
Classy Cats to Hack Hot Hawks
The last Saturday in September has finally arrived after a week which began with Adam Cooney winning the Brownlow. Sadly we had to watch the count from home – our invitation must have been lost in the mail – and cheer on Matthew Richardson to a top five finish.
This year’s Grand Final takes us back to yesteryear and perhaps the greatest AFL Grand Final of them all, Hawthorn’s win over Geelong in 1989. We digress.
Picking the winner of the Grand Final is by no means an easy task, but as the old saying goes – nothing ventured, nothing gained – so here’s our tip... Geelong ($1.45).
The speculative bets have come for Hawthorn this week in the same way that Port Adelaide were sensationally backed in the 24 hours before the bounce of the ball in last year. Remembering what happened to the Power, and working on fundamentals rather than sentiment, we can’t go past the Cats.
They have won 23 of 24 matches this year, and while their win last week not their best performance, the pain they inflicted on Port last year was after a similarly ‘unimpressive’ preliminary final win over Collingwood. In what will be a ferocious and attacking game, Geelong’s experience on the biggest stage will count for plenty, and as long as their back six can hold their own against the likes of Franklin and Roughead, the mob from down the highway will go back-to-back.
The Norm Smith Medal has been noted for throwing up a few surprises in recent years. Steve Johnson, Andrew Embley and Shaun Hart have all upstaged more fancied counterparts to take the medal home. With this in mind, we’re throwing in four recommendations for this year’s best on ground.
Chance Bateman’s ($15) importance to the Hawks is often understated, with their success on Saturday just as dependent on him as a Luke Hodge or Sam Mitchell. The media types who vote for the winner we’ll have no trouble spotting Bateman – courtesy of his atrocious dreadlocks – as he takes two or three bounces along the wing and pumps the ball inside 50. Bateman also wins a lot of contested footy and lays some bone crunching tackles.
Gary Ablett Jnr. ($7) has been the AFL’s dominant midfielder this year. His disposal is first class; he kicks goals; he wins the contested ball and has amazing core strength that allows him to break almost any tackle. With his freakish skill, he’ll be in the judges’ minds from the outset, and with a little bit of extra fire in the belly after getting so close in the Brownlow, he could be the match winner.
Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin ($8.50). There aren’t many adjectives that do this man justice. He could probably pull 100,000 fans if he was taking to the ground by himself on Saturday! He has to be included in Norm Smith calculations. However, he is a risk. You have to take the good with the bad in Buddy’s case. In week one of the finals we saw the good; last week the bad. He might come out and kick eight, or he might not get a touch, but if he brings his ‘A-game’, a Norm Smith is well within his grasp.
Joel Corey ($12) has had a stellar season. In a star studded midfield, Corey has a habit of slipping under the guard of the opposition, continually racking up massive possession totals. If Hawthorn is too conscious of Ablett, Bartel and Selwood, Corey will take full advantage and might just find enough space and enough of the ball to take home the Norm Smith.
One market where Corey looks a good thing is his head-to-head clash with Hawthorn’s Jordan Lewis for the most disposals in the games. Corey ($1.80) polled strongly in the Brownlow and was named in the centre for the All-Australian team. Most importantly for this bet, he’s gathered the most disposals of any player in the competition this year, averaging almost 27 touches a game. Jordan Lewis is a solid player but Corey is in hot form and should get more of the footy, particularly if he slips under the radar in Geelong’s star-studded midfield.
In the NRL its preliminary final weekend and we like both favourites. New premiership favourites Manly will be desperate for another crack at premiership success after losing the decider last year. Their opponents the Warriors have come from eight in a fairytale run to the prelim but Manly have won six of the two sides last eight clashes, including both matches this year. After a week’s rest, Manly ($1.36) should take the chocolates.
What to make of our long-time favourite the Melbourne Storm? After last week’s dramatic – and some might say lucky – victory, they’ve lost skipper Cameron Smith and his namesake Jeremy to suspension, and Ryan Hoffman to injury. They’re massive outs but so is the absence of Brett Seymour and Brett Kearney for Cronulla. Both of the side’s last two matches have been decided by a single point – one win apiece – so it’ll be close but we’re sticking fat and backing the Storm ($1.60) to make another Grand Final.
Suggested Bets:
Geelong to win @$1.45 Storm/Manly/Joel Corey (More disposal than Jordan Lewis) @ $3.92
Norm Smith Medal Fancies: Gary Ablett Jnr. @ $7 Lance Franklin @ $8.50 Chance Bateman @ $15 Joel Corey @ $12
19 September 2008 The All Rounder - All Sports
Where’s the Invite, Andy?
The AFL’s night of nights, the Brownlow medal, will be awarded on Monday night. Sadly the All Rounder seems to have missed out on an invitation – perhaps our antics last year played a part – but we still haven’t given up hope of the Mailman personally delivering our late invitation on Monday afternoon.
Barring that, we’ll be watching the event from the couch with betting tickets in hand as the Brownlow has become one of the best sporting awards to bet on. Indeed TAB Sportsbet are to be applauded for the sheer number of betting options they are providing for the medal although their website still leaves a lot to be desired. We digress.
The key is wading through all the options to find the best value and after doing so we think we’ve found it – Gary Ablett ($1.65) to lead after Round 11. The Geelong superstar had more than 34 disposals in three games before the half-way mark of the season so he could easily net a maximum nine votes in those games. Throw in a vote or two more from a couple of other strong performances and he should be the half-way leader. Importantly Ablett only missed one game in the first half of the season but he missed three in the second half and was injured before half – time in another.
With this mind, and having cashed in on Ablett being the leader at the half way mark, we fancy Jimmy Bartel ($3.50) to go back-to-back in the game’s highest individual honour. We also like the look of Tiger Matthew Richardson ($3.25) to finish in the top five.
However, with the Brownlow always throwing up some surprises, we think there is better value elsewhere, particularly in the markets for who will poll the most votes in each team.
Collingwood’s Dane Swan produced another stellar season this year. He finished tied for sixth on 20 votes last year, showing that he has no trouble catching the eye of the umpires. In fact, Swan actually led midway through last year’s count, but there were no close ups from the Channel Seven camera as he wasn’t invited; instead watching the count amidst Collingwood’s Mad Monday antics whilst dressed in a Superman suit. Hopefully more appropriately dressed on Monday, we expect Swan to outshine his teammates and poll the most votes for Collingwood ($1.60).
Another player we like in the ‘most team votes’ category is Cameron Bruce ($2.40). Now to say the Demons didn’t have a great year is an understatement, but that doesn’t matter with this bet, as he’s only up against his own teammates. Bruce played all 22 games this year, gathering 25+ possessions in nine of those, and with very few players to steal votes; we envisage eight or nine votes being enough for Bruce to seal top spot on Melbourne’s vote sheet.
The last of our predictions here centres on Chris Judd ($1.30). Judd’s Brownlow record speaks for itself – he won in 2004 and polled 16 votes in eight consecutive games last year before being cut down by osteitis pubis. Clearly an umpires’ favourite, don’t be alarmed if he starts slowly; he will poll most of his votes in the second half of the season to sit atop the vote getters list at Carlton.
If betting on the Brownlow is not your thing, then look long and hard at the Ryder Cup Golf tournament. The now biannual event between the USA and Europeans is one of the most prestigious events in world golf and players have been known to tailor their schedules to win Ryder Cup selection.
In recent times the Europeans have dominated the contest, winning the last three events – the last two by a staggering 9 points each – and five of the last six clashes. The Europeans ($1.85) have star studded team which includes Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia and the winner of the last two major tournaments, Irishmen Padraig Harrington. Despite the |